TSX:CAR.UN - Post by User
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retiredcfon Feb 24, 2022 9:38am
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Post# 34457492
TD
TDCurrently have a $72.00 target. GLTA
Canadian Apartment Properties REIT
(CAR.UN-T) C$54.65
Q4/21 First Look: Results Miss As Operating Expenses Tick Up Event
Q4/21 results. Conference call today at 9:00 a.m. ET (1-844-200-6205; passcode: 914949).
Impact: SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
NFFO/unit (f.d.) was $0.57, -1% vs. Q4/20, and below our estimate of $0.60 (consensus: $0.61). AFFO/unit (our calculation) was $0.49 (TDS: $0.52). The miss was driven by higher-than-expected operating costs (Exhibit).
Q4/21 saw continued improvement in occupancy and rents. However, Canadian Residential SPNOI growth declined 2.1% y/y (2021: +0.6%) owing to a 9.0% increase in operating costs. This represented its first negative quarter of SPNOI since Q4/13. The increase in operating costs was attributed to R&M (timing related as fewer restrictions in Q4/21), as well as higher utilities. We note that 2021 SP operating expenses were only up 2.1% y/y. We will be looking for more colour from management on its outlook for operating costs in 2022.
Despite the Q4/21 result, we believe that CAPREIT is still well-positioned to generate low-to-mid single-digit SPNOI growth in 2022, partly due to the removal of 0% rent caps in Ontario and B.C., and improving demand fundamentals.
Operating Highlights
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Ontario SPNOI (58% of Canadian residential SPNOI) was -0.1%, Quebec (18%) was -7.0%, B.C. (15%) was -4.7%, and Alberta (4%) was -4.7%. MHC SPNOI (7%) was -2.6%. Total portfolio SPNOI, including Europe (ERES Q4/21 results here) was -2.0%..
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Canadian Residential Suite SP revenues were +1.9% in Q4/21 owing to an 80bps y/y occupancy increase to 98.7% and 2.8% AMR growth to $1,316. Rental uplifts averaged 4.2% in Q4/21 (2021: +3.0%), including 8.6% on new leases. This compares favourably to the 6.0% lifts on turnover reported in Q3/21, reflecting the ongoing strengthening of market fundamentals, in our view.
Acquisition/Disposition Activity
2021 Canadian acquisition activity totalled $804.5mm across 3,245 suites and MHC sites. Post-Q4, acquired a 59-suite property in Kelowna, B.C., for $29.5mm ($500,000/suite).
Balance Sheet
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Q4/21 IFRS property-level FV increase of $568.3mm (2021: $1.1bln), or $3.24/ unit, as the cap rate declined 5bps to 3.68%. IFRS book value was +4.1% q/ q to $59.17.
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CAPREIT had $457.9mm of liquidity ($73.4mm cash; $384.5mm available on credit lines) vs. $381.7mm in Q3/21.
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Leverage (Debt/GBV) was -110bps q/q at 36.1%