RE:NG Pricing of tourmaline Good info, a few points to add:
-LNG Canada 1 under construction: 2025/26 - 2.1 Bcf/d.
-Woodfibre LNG - under construction: 2027 - 400MMcf/d.
-Cedar LNG (FID 2023): 2027 - 400MMcf/d.
-Ksi Lisims (FID 2023): 2027 - 2+ Bcf/d.
-LNG Canada 2 (FID 2024): 2028 - 2.1 Bcf.d.
Woodfibre is spoken for with Pacific / Enbridge JV.
LNG Canada 1 will have roughly enough production, but not enough supply/reserves.
LNG Canada has neither - production nor the supply.
Ksi Lisims a lot of work to do yet on that project to bring it to FID.
Cedar LNG - Haisla/Pembina JV will be a boon for the BC Montney producers that sign the supply agrements as they will get JKM pricing but with low costs for transport relative to USGC.
Tourmaline / ARC Resources / CNRL will do very well here IMHO.
Good luck everyone.
~TGC.
og1959 wrote: only 3% of their 2023 is Nymex basis- 2.75 or so today
15% of their 2023 is California based (Malin/PGE)- $11 today
US LNG is 5%- higher than Nymex and price is much higher
Those who assume Tourmaline are getting Sub $3 for their production are mistaken.
Rose said payout ratio will be 50 to 90%- depends on NG pricing if its lower or higher.
Company is also below their debt target so they can likely maintain big specials drawing down debt if they are below.
I expect we will see $7 to $9 payout this year and at these prices Tou will give a very nice yield as they crank the output another couple hundred thousand BOEPD in 2028 with LNG Canada sucking a couple of BCF per day.
Best company by far