FD CFPS rose 3% to $2.20 in 2024 (Royal Bank)So based on forward cash flow Kelt is trading $5.30 at 2.41 times. 2024 projected Cash Flow
To deliver this 2024 cash flow the wells are currently being drilled within the 2023 budget, and depending on the timing of the official the additional 50 Mmcf coming on.
Kelts 2024 capital budget is 285 million, and in Q1 their FCF was ruffly 92 million, so this means all they need to generate is about 65 million a quarter FCF for the rest of the year. To meet their budget which is 27 million less than Q1. Also is suggest that they end the year there will cash in the bank.
I would say that Kelts production is also ahead of forecast, producing 31,833 in the first quarter with their full year guidance being 32,000 to 34,000 boe/day
The royal bank is forecasting FCF around 195 million shares * 2.20 = 429 million dollars. That a pretty big jump from this year. If the metrics are the same as this year it would suggest production of about 48,000 boe/day for 2024. That is what i think is assume in the Royal bank forecast.
Q2 is a bit of a wild card between fires and plant turn arounds, but my guess is that their current production capability is over 34,000 a day, and Q2 is going to be a write off.
I do expect to see a big increase in production and cash flow and share price.
IMHO