RE:TORONTOJAY Garyreins, don't be so sure of yourself.
Canada is already in a recession and it will take some time for the US to enter one. As I've said many times, the US is in much better shape than Canada. The excess savings is all but over which is what was driving the economy post covid. The recession doesn't kickstart until after the Fed pivots. During the GFC, it took 15 months from the last hike in June 2006 until the first cut in September 2007. The recession started 3 months later.
There are reasons to be pessimistic about 2024.
1) student debt payments are back as of October 1
2) excess savings is wiped out according to San Fran Fed.
3) the yield curve is still inverted
4) the Reverse repo market is almost wiped out. Janet Yellen may have to look outside the reverse repo to finance the US deficit. She has a couple options: she could increase the supply of treasuries (inflationary) or she could borrow from the private sector which is going to contract the money supply at the same time the Fed is doing QT. Pick your poison.
A few additional comments on why it's taking so long. The US had interest rates at 0% for 2 full years and we are not even 2 years since we started hiking.
Be patient.