RE:350,000 Net Acres of Montney (kelt and CPG the same)Kelt could do a better job though. They really are 2 "Divisions" - light oil (Wembley, Charlie Lake and some Pouce Coupe montney) and natural gas (Oak, Pouce Coupe, other).
The profitability of the oil side is much much higher than naturalgas even at $4.50 HH so imagine at $1.50. Its very obvious when you spreadhseett he stuff.
The RLI at Kakwa is only 14.2 years. 14.2 years of Charlie Lake and Wembley probably equates to 45,000+ boped at a MINIMUM of 35% oil (probably more like 40% since 35% is probably the EUR reserves). Right now without any reserves growth (which they will - they haven't booked anything at grosso modo ~80% of their Charlie Lake land rights).
And there's good reason why: when you look down south, they're able to add a lot of natural gas in short order, they constantly have to constrain what they produce. They already cut the natgas rigs by 30-40% yet production still 100 B's a day, imagine if they raised them by that amount. Whereas oil is a struggle to grow, COP CEO recently said they don't see US oil going any higher than 14M bpd.
Different business model too - Light oil is about buying land, delineating, driling properly.
Whereas natural gas is all about marketing, diversifying and hedging the gas - doesn't matter how well you drill etc.. if you can't market worth a darn.
So saying you're expanding the processing capacity across the board isn't that useful. Not useful either to say NGLs/oil mix wil remain the same (if PC & Oak are maintained and Wembley reaches 30,000 of 50,000, that's probably 35%+ oil for the company. More if they drill Charlie Lake). And not useful to drill so much at Oak - 2024 should have been close to 100% oil - ie Wembley and Charlie Lake.
Despite that, the #s once that other Wembley plant where Kelt has 50MMcf of gas processing capacity are going to be stunning - oil price willing - even at $2 gas.