#1 WTI $81, Kelt $6.15This is my amateur opinions and guesses
#1 Why? Because they drilled natural gas wells without proper hedges and natural gas prices in Alberta and BC are severely depressed at the moment. Not unlike the US, it will take time to rectify the situation although the commissioning of LNG Canada will certainly help. And like in the US, stock prices will eventually recover some (ex Antero was unhedged and SP went down to $19ish and is now $33).
Hopefully they learn their lesson not to drill wells that are predominantly natural gas without having hedges in place especially when you have the triply whammy risk of HH, AECO and Station2. (to add insult to injury they actually borrowed to do so).
#2 That said, the potential in Alberta is sky high IMO. They're doubling plant capacity from 116 in early 2023 to 241MMcf by 2025? Most of that (all?) will be filled with NG from liquids rich wells which means more oil and more overall production per MMcf of plant capacity. Morever, when they interconnect Wembley and Pouce Coupe, they'll be able to replace gassier production decline with production from oilier wells which will mean more oil and more production.
(In theory if every plant was fed with natural gas from wells that produce 40% oil, the boepd capacity from 241MMcf of plant capacity would be 66,000 boepd (26,667 bpd of oil. I'm thinking this is actually a metric that should be measured to see how effective your operation is).
#3 Kelt has done a wonderful job acquiring and developing the plays. Whether the management can get the job done operationally remains to be seen. If they continue to ignore the commodities' price reality and invest in weaker ROI wells, AND don't opportunistically hedge, then they'll eventually have to sell (which is fine too).* Plus they might want to do something about this SBC business.
GLTA
* right now due to low NG prices, they probably need to add some oil hedges is my guess to protect the cashflow and not end up like Birchcliff (paying something - capex in Kelt's case, dividend in Birchcliff's - you can't afford because you had no hedges in place - resulting in debt going up)