Plant Issue Q1, will Linger in Q2
Wembley/Pipestone Outage
25 MMcf - (2 weeks) - 14/90 = 15.5% impairment impact for the quarter 1 (4.16 MMcf)/day
34 MMcf = 20% impairment for the entire quarter 1 (6.8 MMcf)
So in Q1 Kelts Wembley Production will be impacted by about 11 MMcf/day.
Which will equate to rough 3,000 boe/day for Q1.
(11 MMcf / 6 ) / .60 = 3,000 boe/day
This is pretty significant for Kelt who only produced 32,900 in Q1 2024
In Q2 (4.16/6) / .6 = 1100 boe/day improvement because of gas plant performance, equates pretty well to the 32900 Q1 + 1100 boe/day = 34,000 boe/day in March.
So 34,000 boe March = Plus 20 MMcf Oak April 1, could pur Kelt in the 36-37,000 boe/day for Q2.
In Q3 6.8 MMcf processing restored should impact Wembley/pipestone (6.8/6) / .6 = 1800 more boe/day.
So that equate to 38,000 - 39,000 for Q3.
In Q4 with 50 MMcf added at Wembley/Pipestone, (50 MMcf /6 ) = 13,800 boe/day added Capacity added at Wembley/Pipestone (60% Liquids, 66% free Liquids)
So with the plant startup in Q4 and likely a turnaround shortly after let say Q1, 38,000 + 13,800 = 51,800 boe/day.
So that is my guess right now Q1 2025 roughly 50,000 boe/day, hopefully when all the plant stuff is behind kelt by Q3, 2024 and the 50 MMcf comes on as planned in Q4.
In 2025 they will be 25 MMcf coming on at North Pouce Coupe, mid year that will bring Kelt into the 55,000 boe/day range. Q3 2025.
This is what is see Kelt struggling with but when you look at slide 9, kelt historically had only 20% of their operating revenue to come for natural gas, and as Kelt ramps up Wembley/Pipestone it will move the liquids/oil ration in the right liquids direction.
IMHO