RE:Advantage Powerpoint Slide 20In fairness to the other party, you are peddling hard with basically no data to back it up.
Here's a reality check:
Station 2 is 13 cents, AECO is 36 cents. Now look up the BC govt natgas production data. Its up the equivalent of 300BCF (over a year of run rate) in the first quarter of '24 vs '22. Where does all that gas end up? AECO. Why do you think our exports to the US (their imports) are up? Too much friggin gas. Perhaps in anticipation of LNG Canada (which is only 600-700BCF annual) some would say but wtf cares? Its a disaster. NO wonder ARX had to shut in 250,000 MCF of gas.
Not being aware of this + drilling for gas in BC and Alberta + Not growing oil + not hedging gas + not changing course quickly = formula for you know what. Somebody is either not very smart or asleep at the switch.
Here's another piece of data for you:
Nuvista spent $512M in capex the past 12 months. They managed to increase conde production by 3771 bpd. If I include 40% of LY production (as decline that has to be replaced), that means the bpd capital efficiency was $115/bpd. Is it good? I don't know. But I know Nuvista is a well run company.
Crew spent $251M in capex this past year. They increased condesate from 3955 to 6187 so using my napkin formula we get $179 per bpd capital efficiency. My guess is if they had the assets they would have done better. But they don't. Their 2P reserves are 17% liquids, what are you going to do?
Kelt otoh spent $315M in capex the past year. They added 222 bpd of oil. Assuming decline of 40% like the others, we get a BPD capital efficiency of $252. Despite having the best oil assets of the 3 companies.
I believe both of you are paid. I am not. And in my view,Kelt has great plays but they made some very very poor management decisions in the past year. Now, can we really blame the underlings for selling their shares the first chance they get?
If I could I would change my username to pablo the bagholder.