RE:RE:Kelt's Oak Dilemma (amateur hour)My guess is if a transaction were to happen now, what buyers would want is Wembley. Oak would be a throw in or Kelt would develop on their own.(...).
By the way, as of 12/31/23, Wembley may have 50% more oil/conde than Crew, which is before adding that 3rd bench and the partial Charlie Lake bench there. Wild Wild guess, Wembley 2P oil reserves could reach 100M barrels @ 12/31/24.
As for cash flow a day's $1.2B valuation for Kelt Wembley, proved is $1.7B, 2P is $2.4B very similar to what SDE sold to Crescent Point (22% booked vs 25%, less prodn of course but coming up).
This is before whatever gets added in '23 (although NG price forecast are for sure about to take a dump), that 3rd bench and the Charlie Lake@Wembley.
Nuvists has an EV of $3B and my guess only has 50-55% more oil/conde Wembley implying $2B valuation for Wembley assuming no premium on a Nuvista transaction.
Arc resources has 488M barrels of oil,/conde 2P reserves (15.8 yrs rli) or 5x my wild guess of Wembley @ 12/31/24. ARX has an EV of $16B. $1.2B/$16B = 7.5%.
So if Wembley sells for $1.2B, somebody dumped the shortage (Chinese expression meaning the seller is either dumb or very dumb).
I believe a $2B price tag for Wembley is justified today but personally I think it will go up in value over time whereas I think Oak is pretty much a pipe dream for a small co. Again, amateur hour.