RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Kelt's Oak Dilemma (amateur hour)Probably better to hedge than expect everyone else to show discipline. If that Gas Alberta data is correct- AECO ~$3/GJ for Q4 and ~$3.40 for Q1 - I'm definitely booking 50% for Q4 '24 and Q1 '25. Pretty sure Pouce Coupe West is proftable at those prices as would be Oak. You still have full upside on 50% of production.
AECO outlook is better than HH IMO. AECO has LNG Canada 2Bcf DEMAND for 2025, HH has the Matterhorn Permian pipeline 2 Bcf SUPPLY coming on line in Q4.
If Kelt is disciplined and hedges gas, all the plays are probably positive cashflow in Q4 and Q1 IMO (If that Gas Alberta forward pricing data is accurate).