RE:RE:RE:Energy spells *** Opportunity ***I don't agree with your share buyback analysis which I'll answer at another time but one thing I've noticed (anecdotal - could be wrong) is when oil and gas prices drop, E&Ps doing buybacks buyback less. Which could cause the share price to drop. Think about it:
1) 100,000 shares bought by retail/inst/hedge/ on any given day
2) 20,000 shares bought by company
120,000 sold by types listed in 1).
Buyers = sellers. Price equilibrium.
Now, remove 2) . Disequilibrium. More sellers than buyers. Price drops. The effect of lower oil and gas prices is exacerbated.
To your point, a company's shareholders would be better off it seems if company's kept their powder dry and bought back shares during periods of low oil and gas prices (like now) rather than buy when commodity prices are high (which is when they have a lot of cashflow). But that seems too cute, those BoD types at big companies would roll their eyes for sure - and then fire the CEO who suggested it!