RE:RE:Long time market bull Tom Lee turns bearish According to Hirsch’s theory, after entering the Oval Office, the chief executive has a tendency to work on their most deeply held policy proposals and focus on fulfilling campaign promises.
As the next election looms, the model suggests that presidents focus on shoring up the economy in order to get re-elected. As a result, the major stock market indices are more likely to gain in value. The theory and the data it's based on indicate that the largest returns come in year three of the term and the second largest returns come in the fourth year of the term. According to the theory, the results are fairly consistent, regardless of the president’s political leanings.