Citgo Q3 resultsCitgo Q3 results came out late last week and they were excellent.
https://www.citgo.com/newsroom/press-releases/2024/citgo-reports-third-quarter-2024-results?csrt=6034869085836242519 Considering the weak Q2 numbers plus the Q3 deterioration in refining spreads, I had been concerned that Q3 numbers would be terrible. If they had been (terrible) then that would have played into Elliott's self-serving claims that Citgo is just a crummy business and that we should all be thrilled with their miserable excuse for a bid.
For context, note that a (relatively) pure refining story like PBF Energy showed a huge loss in Q3 but the bigger names like Marathon and Valero, which have substantial assets in storage, transmission, and their own gas station networks, did okay, still solidly profitable.
Citgo appears to be configured much more like Marathon and Valero (i.e., substantial assets downstream from refining) but also much smaller--and so I wasn't sure if (relatively small) Citgo would also be able to maintain solid profitability in Q3's weak refining environment.
Indeed it did.
This bodes well for the value of Citgo if / when the auction gets back on track. Factor in the recent recoveries in the stock prices of Marathon, Valero, and (yes) even PBF Energy, and it is clearly not a stretch at all that Citgo would be worth $8+ billion in an auction where the Special Master is no longer able to exclude all the competition facing his precious Elliott.
One other thing. As the SM and Elliott had full access to the data room all these past few months, they knew that these very solid results were coming. This makes the SM's "loyalty" to Elliott look all the more questionable. If there had been poor Q3 results coming (and the SM knew it), that could potentially have given him an excuse for so resolutely standing by Elliott. Essentially, I (the SM) knew Elliott's bid was looking more and more reasonable as I saw very poor results unfolding over the course of Q3 at Citgo.
Didn't turn out that way at all.