RE:RE:RE:Whilst I appreciate the banter and the updates on NAV etcIf you can't see the obvious patterns in any of these SPLITs???????????
Just bring up a chart and check out where they were 10-20 years ago and where they are now. What are you missing?
Then bring up the quarterly charts and look at the high/low patterns. Use something other than your cell phone.
Usually, not always these splits will have a definite price top the day before ex distribution qualification day. Then at the close of day or next morning the price drops more than the distribution pays and as often as not continues to drop for another week or more.
Picking up the SPLIT a few days to a week after teh ex distribution qualification date is usually, not always, the best time to buy back in.
Don't look for a slam dunk, these swings aren't identical every month, and some months they don't even happen.
Do some of your own "due diligence" Don't expect "someone else" to do it for you.
The FTN segment of this site is lucky in that there are a few good folks here calculating NAV on a daily basis. This is interesting, but it shouldn't be what you buy or sell on.
They can only figure out the NAV by the information they get on the SPLIT holdings and if they were figuring out the NAV of each individual holding, they wouldn't be trading and discussing it here.
However, the information they give is relevant for "quick and dirty" trades and IMHO, it's why they go through the process. It's more of a "confirmation" than anything else.
Some of the traders here follow other cycles, with longer duration times and overall sections of the market, such as the S&P swing cycles. Those are "indicators" not crystal balls.
There are no investments that are 100% certain, unless you're doing something illegal.
There may be the very odd "one off" out there with a perfect record, but even the biggest and most successful investors are happy with 60-65% success rates.
GLTA the good folks here and hopefully the next few days will be profitable for you all in 2024.
I have a feeling the first few weeks in Jan/25 are going to be extremely interesting.