Alaris Equity Partners Income 6 25 Senior Unsecured Debentures T.AD.DB.A

Scotia's view - more after C.Call

[SunsetGrill]

Scota analyst is a tuff nut to crack - hes been right so far going back 2-3 yrs

Rating Sector Perform
1-Yr. Target C$19.00 A
D.UN-T C$16.97
1-Yr. Return 19.3%
Div. (NTM) $1.24
Div. (Curr.) $1.24
Yield (Curr.) 7.3%

Q1/21 Initial Take - Results Modestly Ahead With Sustained Solid Performance Across Portfolio

OUR TAKE: Slight Positive. Alaris reported first-quarter results that were slightly ahead of expectations mainly from lower opex. AD's investments have sustained their solid performance, with the portfolio remaining in good health. Of its 20 investments, only ccComm's ECR falls below 1.0x, while Planet Fitness is the only investment with an ECR of 1.2x to 1.5x. Alaris has seven investments in the 1.5x to 2.0x range, with the remaining eight boasting an ECR greater than 2.0x. As noted last quarter, Federal Resources and Kimco are continuing to evaluate the possibility of a full, or partial redemption. While nothing remains imminent, management updated the expected redemption value for Kimco to US$70M to US$80M compared to US$53M and US$75M initially. Federal Resources' redemption value is now estimated to be between US$75M and US$85M, a touch lower than the US$86M management had forecasted initially. We see the Kimco redemption as a clear positive and believe recent robust capital deployment activity bodes well to mitigate reinvestment risk related to timing. We will provide a full update following the May 7 conference call at 11:00 a.m. ET (dialin: 1-888-390-0546). KEY POINTS Normalized EBITDA/sh of $0.71 came in slightly ahead of the Street at $0.69 and our estimate of $0.68. This was up ~22% y/y, but down roughly 5% q/q mainly due to the dilution from the recent equity issuance as total normalized EBITDA improved nearly 7% q/q. The modest beat was driven by slightly lower-than-expected opex, with the topline coming in as expected. NCOA/sh of $0.66 also came in ahead of our forecast and improved 10.5% q/q. In Q1/21, AD experienced a total increase in its FV of investments of ~$5.5M, as well as a bad debt recovery of $4M from Kimco relating to A/R and promissory notes due from the company that were previously written off. Post Q1/21, Kimco also repaid US$4M of the total US$18.3M of accrued long-term A/R and promissory notes due to AD. Compared to Q4/20, all 17 partners experienced no change in their ECR, while the company added 3 new ones in the quarter whose ratios ranged from 1.2x-1.5x to greater than 2.0x

[HermannHaller]

The stock was at $22.20 in Jan/20, after earning $2.76 in EBITDA per share. According to Scotia, they should do $2.69 in 2021 and $2.94 in 2022. That says to me that the stock should get back at least to it's old level, over $22. I expect Scotia will raise their target in time and upgrade the rating.

[Tommy123]

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