Enghouse Systems Ltd T.ENGH

$45 by year end?

[zalmonella]

I'm sure there's a good business in here somewhere struggling to get out, but when will that be?  I admit to being puzzled about the stimulus that makes analysts insist we should keep buying.  Business isn't growing in either department, and despite being debt free, there has to be a reasonable assumption that business will grow, which nobody can see a stimulus for.  Being debt-free matters not a whit when the business is shrinking, not growing.

Discounting the gorilla CSU, when I look at others in the similar line, it's hard to get a fair value when compared to GIB.A, DSG, KXS, OPTsyz    OTEX, SYZ and BB don't fit the model, but nonetheless are doing better anyway.  With nothing in the offing except rolkling up more assets, there's nor eason to buy.  $45 by year end doesn't sound the last bit unreasonable with the current P/E, and if we use more traditional measures of P/S and P/B the fair value coulid be a lot lower at $30.

[Defiance2050]

On a comparative front to the overall market ENGH is expensive but nothing compared to the rest of software acquiror tech (excluding CGI which is services instead of software). KXS and DSG are trading at metrics close to triple that of ENGH. Dye and Durham is a recent acquiror and they are doing purchases approaching 20x Ev/EBITDA. Enghouse continues has had valuation discipline for acquisitions.&

[zalmonella]

Yes, this is exactly what the analysts keep saying.  Yet here we are at $45 two weeks before I raised the question.  I think you and the analysts need a new model.  A parrot isn't as useful.

[Defiance2050]

I was dissappointed by the earnings reaction.  Management has said for several quarters in earning calls to expect Vidyo revenues to normalize. From what I have seen analysts didnt model normalizing revenue in.  Insiders have not sold a share since April according to ceo insider tracker (recent years were selling quarterly including at prices below current). NCIB was ruled out at the

[willyk3]

I hope ur right because I've been sucked in. All ways wanted some ENGH but the price seemed too high Don't like grabbing the proverbial knife and technically looks like it could drop to as low as 30s but on the other hand at some point u take ur chances

[zalmonella]

I hope ur right because I've been sucked in. All ways wanted some ENGH but the price seemed too high Don't like grabbing the proverbial knife and technically looks like it could drop to as low as 30s but on the other hand at some point u take ur chances Ya, I don't know that this is a falling knife, but it would be nice to time the market as best you can. It's still a good

[Defiance2050]

My apologies thought you were a short-basher rather than a shareholder, would have responded differently. Special dividend I would just factor as a one time event. It is difficult for companies on the front of deals before they are signed other than saying they are in discussions. In terms of future M&A it is difficult to know in advance or how the (assumed to be ongoing) review will go. I

[zalmonella]

I am a short basher when the valuation or the opinion is ignorant, but that's not often - as you can tell I don't have the smarts for good analysis. That said, you confirm with your story about DII.B that SOTP is valid and therefore my loose screen of P/B DII.B was also one of my bigger wins - it's one of the few I bought in during the COVID low at $1.90 and got rid of a bit soon at

[Defiance2050]

It is difficult to quantify future performance without knowing market factors in advance. For analysis you just make assumptions and examine what the econmic situations would be. Nobody is perfect and people make mistakes on selling (our not selling) and entry points. I unfortunately didnt think of biking earlier in the pandemic and could have invested more but cant complain. On the time

[zalmonella]

Interesting that there's still a fair bit of short interest out there at 395,000.  Clearly this is not day traders on margin.

[zalmonella]

Nothing was mentioned on a review front To be fair, I should include the special divvy as a positive. It just seems insignificant in light of the fact that I've held this two years and am well underwater. It's also very difficult to say, but the recent market reverses for tech may have also affected targets ENGH might be interested in.  I guess I shouldn't expect them to say in