North American Financial 15 Split Corp T.FFN

20% yield, price 15% below nav: game plan?

[marcrobert]

Interesting times... prevailing wisdom was that the gains in november would continue after the clown took office, that the Santa rally would happen hopefully last couple of trading days and early Jan.None of that happened. Instead, we have a wave of profit taking, not clear whather that will be exhausted soon or if the rates narrative continues to spread fear, while clown does the pro-inflation moves with tarifs.

How do you all feel about buying more FFN at 6.84 at this stage? people who got in sub 4/5 and long term holders especially, would you consider adding more here (pretend you don't have a full position), if not, why?

I'm still nibbling although on the fence about this market, a broad correction is overdue, despite the superficial signs of strong and weak US economy. If there's even a hint of possible rate increase by fed officials, the market is toast for a while and the hope that clown policies may help US growth seems shaky argument, but probably good for banks. Right now the clown is distracting with circus tricks, so if you take the (lessening) contrarian view (policies will amount to nothing, clown fluff continues, tarifs ramp inflation and fed flips to tightening) maybe dry powder reserves makes more sense. Certainly for big money higher yields makes it an easy choice to bank big gains and collect inflation hedging yields. 

the current nav cushion of about $2.60 isn't huge, although I'm wondering if FFN ever traded at a premium. Looking around, many other splits seem to be trading at a discount, SBC for example, which was at 10+% premium until 2023. Surprisingly, RS is still 15% above NAV, while ENS is 15% below, although enb and trp have secular tailwinds, and the safety margin for ENS A holders is also very high (notwithstanding the single stock risk)

[kurtwalter]

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025011344/jpmorgan-citi-wells-fargo-and-goldmans-earnings-results-may-boost-banks-stocks-further