H&R Real Estate Investment Trust T.HR.UN

REITs smell BoC Rate Hike

[Frankie10]

My spidey-sense is going off. I think BoC hikes June 7, and I think REITs are sniffing it out. Equities to follow. - - pure speculation*

In Ontario, every realtor I speak to (boots on the ground) tells me housing has been straight up and to the right since the pause - - hard to put into words how devestating this is for the fight against inflation (existential economic risk).

[Capharnaum]

I think if anything, the BoC will reduce rates.

[Torontojay]

There is no way Canada should lower the Policy rate. Inflation is trending at 6.6% over the last 3 months annualized and 4.4% y/y. Our current policy rate is sitting at the same rate as inflation which is moving higher. How could Tiff Macklem bring down inflation if the inflationary rate is moving higher than the current policy rate? 

[Capharnaum]

Just look at the latest market participants survey: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/04/market-participants-survey-first-quarter-of-2023/ The problem is that the economy in Canada isn't strong enough to support higher rates. A lower dollar helps exportations at the cost of importations, so it makes sense to keep the rates as is or lower. For inflation, we're dependant on the

[Torontojay]

There is a dual mandate when it comes to the policy rate. They are to 1) bring down inflation and 2) stabilize the labour market. History teaches us that in order to bring down inflation you have to cause a recession. It's almost inevitable and every hiking cycle caused a recession with the exception of 1966,1984 and 1995. If rates stay the same there is a similar risk as to what happened in

[Frankie10]

Everyone's an economist now.. don't think they'll raise rates? Incompetent. The need to continue to hike is as clear as inflation was inbound and wasn't transitory 6 months into Biden's term when everyone was debating masks and vaccines. Inflation is an existential threat. Many idiots do not understand this simple fact. The decay in purchase power at 5% is incredible. To lose

[SNAKEYBOY]

I think you're wrong.  Price hikes of a pepperoni pizza hurt the wallet but people paying 10k/year more on mortgage is more devastating.   Cant tell what is corporate greed versus inflation...you need supply and demand f undamentals always balance out.  If theres a price someone is willing to pay then let them

[Capharnaum]

With Canada's GDP forecast being negative for the rest of the year, it means that the economy isn't driving inflation (ie: people aren't overearning and overspending, otherwise GDP would be higher). Plus, the biggest culprit behind increased wages is the various government levels increasing minimum wage, which ripples through the other workers. Since the increase is policy driven by

[Torontojay]

Where I live in Toronto home prices are up close to 10% since January of this year. Now mind you, real estate prices tend to move higher in the spring but nevertheless I find the increase to be worrisome. Canada's weakening Canadian $ drives import prices higher which fuels inflation. Canada's fiscal deficit drives inflation higher too. Adding 1-1.5 million foreigners to Canada in 2023 is

[pjn0987654321]

"Adding 1-1.5 million foreigners to Canada in 2023"  I wonder about this too.  Not only do all need to be housed but the accomodations need electricity and heating.  Just how much spare capacity is in the energy infrastructure?  I suspect, not very much.  They won't allow new pipelines to be built.  They shut down the nuclear and coal generators. 

[Torontojay]

I like your last paragraph on trying to get Liberal votes as an agenda.  I cannot wait for the day when Trudeau is ousted. 

[Frankie10]

CDN 5Y bond yield up 11% in a 3 days... looks like REITs ain't the only one sniffing out a new rate hike cycle... IBKR margin rate on CAD meaningfully climbing in tandem with CDN bond yields... fun *fml*   

[Frankie10]

CDN bond yields continue to climb... reaching consensus... all but confirmation at this point - let's see what happens the 7th... https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkca-05y?countrycode=bx

[Frankie10]

To all my Canadians, not sure if you saw the clip that circulated yesterday where the deputy c*nt in chief refused to answer the question of how much interest we will pay in the coming fiscal year... only to insist NUMBERS have NO meaning with context (said like a true communist)... anywhoo, I bring this up because the CDN bond yield is the effective rate our government debt rolls at when it