The National Bureau of Economic Research looks at 7 things in determining if the economy is in a recession. So far there are some signals flashing a recession but some that are not. Let's go over this.
1) Gdp and GDI - real gdp in the last 2 quarters annualized is ~ 2.2% which is in line with the trend rate of the economy. This is not flashing a recession signal just yet.
GDI (gross domestic income) - this is negative in the last 2 quarters and would suggest a recessionary contraction. In theory, real gdp and real GDI should be equal. It is worth noting that if you aggregate the 2 ; namely, gdp and GDI then we get a recession signal.
2) real retail sales - The Nber likes to look at retail as it is a big part of consumption spending. When adjusted for inflation, retail sales is in a recession.
3) industrial production - with a further contraction in June, it is clear that industrial production is now contracting and in recession territory.
4) real personal consumption expenditures - this is not flashing a recession sign just yet. I get a 2.5% annualized growth over the last 6 months.
5) real personal income less transfers - we are not in a recession but it is trending below historical averages
6) household survey - although initial claims is starting to rise, it is too early to call it a recession.
7) non farm payrolls- the last report was the lowest in a while, it is still far from recessionary contraction.
Overall, I would say there are signs that a recession is about to arrive but we could still be several more months away from that. In my opinion, once the unemployment rate reaches 4% then the recession has already begun.