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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Alternate Symbol(s):  KELTF

Kelt Exploration Ltd oil and gas company. The Company is focused on the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas resources in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia. The Company's assets are comprised of three operating divisions: Wembley/Pipestone in Alberta; Pouce Coupe/Progress/Spirit River in Alberta, and Oak/Flatrock in British Columbia. The... see more

TSX:KEL - Post Discussion

Kelt Exploration Ltd > Wembley Pipestone + Charlie Lake > $2 billion 2024 year/end
View:
Post by MyHoneyPot on Dec 24, 2023 10:11am

Wembley Pipestone + Charlie Lake > $2 billion 2024 year/end

Wembley Pipestone La Glace 109,659 acres (Net)
  • Q4 plant capacity =109 MMcf  - take it to 45,000 boe/day
  • Type curves = IP365 822 boe/day 62% Liquids
 
Wembley Pipestone Charlie Lake 23,917 acres (Net)
  • IP30 (2 wells average) 1360 boe/day 71% Liquids (From Presentation)
 2018 
NVA bought Pipestone, it added 29% to its land base, (35,250 acres)
 
   29%               90%    (Wembley/Pipstone montney = 90 percentage NVA Montney Land base)
35,250          109,659   (Only Montney Acreage)
 
Kelt Pipestone Wembley represent 90% of the Montney lands in total held by NVA at time of Pipestone acquisition (2018)
 
Pipestone production 9,600 boe/day at the time of the purchase (2018)
Kelts Montney land position at Wembley/pipestone has 3.1 times acreage.
 
NVA paid 625 million for pipestone. (2018)

Kelt Wembley                  NVA                 (Montney only)
109,659                          35,250             3.1 times bigger
45,000                              9,600               4.6875 production   (Q4 2024 assuming 16 wells fill plant)
                                        625 Million      (3.1 – 4.69)Kelt or (1,937 million to 2,931 million)
 
 
Charlie lake is multi zone above the Montney, at Wembley/Pipestone La Glace Kelt has 23,917 acres of Charlie Lake   ( first 2 Charlie lake wells had an average IP30 of 1360 boe 71% Liquids)
 
The land base at Wembley/Pipe including Charlie Lake is larger than the entire Montney land base Nuvista had in 2018 prior to purchasing pipestone.

There is not a lot of montney plays around with this contigious massive land base, and a stacked Charie Lake potential that adds another 24,000 acres

My guess is the selling price for this play will be in the 2.5 billion dollar area if they include Charlie Lake lands, or 2 Billion for just the Montney lands.

When NVA bought pipestone from Cenovous it really did not have the strategic work that Kelt has put into the play to define all the zone, and unearth it value.

IMHO
Comment by PabloLafortune on Dec 26, 2023 2:25pm
Altagas has announced that Pipestone phase II - which they acquired from Tidewater - is fully contracted by phase I customers (construction to begin in 2024).  Kelt is a customer of phase I so, did they sign up for phase II or?
Comment by MyHoneyPot on Dec 27, 2023 10:29am
Good eye regarding the press release... AltaGas Press Release Companies are driling longer and longer wells if they have the land base. One of my other favorites POU is drill 4800 meter horizontial wells in the Duvernay. (3 miles) This does amazing things to reduce play surface footprint, improve initial production results of the wells, and improve the economics of the play opportunity.  ...more  
Comment by Seppelt on Dec 27, 2023 5:39pm
About Charlie Lake, TVE which has a much larger acreage than Kelt, said that it will keep production flat until Q4 2024 and will only resume growth after Albright Sour Gas plant is ready. Further south bordering Kelt the former operator, Pipestone, also experienced H2S issues. The current owner, Strathcona, won't grow the recently acquired Pipestone in 2024, will keep it flat only. Could be ...more  
Comment by MyHoneyPot on Dec 27, 2023 6:32pm
Kelt says they have agreements with 5 gas plants in the area. They were have issues in Q3 and part of Q4 and were impaired from getting their full gas plant capacity in Wembley. That is one reason why their production was off in Q3, and will be a little bit down in Q4.  They have said that they will have 50 MMcf come on in Q4, 2024, and are drilling 16 wells at wembley to support that ...more  
Comment by PabloLafortune on Dec 27, 2023 8:20pm
Kelt has one third of that plant ie 50MMcf under take or pay.
Comment by Seppelt on Dec 28, 2023 10:20am
That is more than enough. The excessive H2S in some wells from a liability may turn into additional reserves. Hopefully the new Sour plant will be ready by Q4 as scheduled. 2025 is shaping into even a better year than 2024.
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