Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

What will happen when CVS Albright comes online

[MyHoneyPot]

Kelt underspent their Capex the first quarter, and they added 26.8 MMcf of processing in Q2. 

Now they are looking to add 50 MMcf of processing capacity in Q4. 

56.8 (74%) more processing in Wembley/Pipestone, 20 MMcf (26%) in Oak. 

Kelt Wembley/Pipestone asset is one of those assets that could produce 80,000 boe/day for 25 years. 

All it has for gas processing before the plant repairs is 52.2 MMcf and by the end of the year it will be 108 MMcf, more than double the production for their highest netback area. 

Kelt is worth way more than AAV or many other stocks and trading at a major discount In My Opinion.


MHP

IMHO

[PabloLafortune]

Based on the ratio of historical production vs plant capacity, my guess with what's been announced we're looking at ~30,000 boepd nameplate at Wembley and ~25,000 boepd at Pouce Coupe etc... Wembley will be 50%+ liquids (57% 2023). Pouce Coupe if all the increase is Charlie Lake type liquids (50%), could in theory get to 40% (33% 2023). Kelt Alberta overall excluding Other, would then be

[MyHoneyPot]

PabloLafortune - I am not really sure the last time Wembley/Pipestone has been operating at nameplate in terms of gas processing. I don't believe it has been since Q2 - 2023 is my guess.  In any case 55 thousand alberta + 7.5 Oak, would be a nice place to land in the not to distant future.  Really the longer the USA holds off on interest rate cuts the longer we have a lower

[MustangMatt]

Excellent post Honey trap! Paying dividends, buying back and cancelling shares is very bad for shareholders.  Lot's of cheap options and increasing the float is good for shareholders.   In other news war is peace and freedom is slavery. That bag you have been holding for me is got to be heavy, cheers Matthew

[MyHoneyPot]

Paying Dividends, just eats up the capital and results in a tax burden for the company, slowing down the pace of growth and their ability to create value in the resource. Cancelling shares Evaporates capital off of the balance sheet, and robs the company of the ability to be opportunistic in the future.  Debt especially with higher interest rates should be used sparingly.   In

[TouchDown12]

Been buying the last 2 weeks and had some good opporuntity in the ultra low 6's. Looking very much forward to the next 9 months on this stock as there are 3 Quarterly Reports, Reserve Update, LNG begins and a normal winter after 2 little ones in a row over that time frame. GLTA TD12

[teashade]

In 2025 they could produce ~45k boe/d at 60% NG. With reasonable netbacks that's ~$375M in AFFO for the year (Q1 2024 of around $65M? Assuming they will outspend AFFO for both 2024 and 2025, that puts EV/AFFO(with some added debt) at around 3.5x for 2025, but on exit rate should be a lot less as production will end 2025 strong. Growing unhedged gas volumes into an oversupplied in a capacity