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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) T.TOU

Alternate Symbol(s):  TRMLF

Tourmaline Oil Corp. is a Canada-based crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The Company is focused on long-term growth through an aggressive exploration, development, production and acquisition program in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It operates in three basins, which include the Alberta Deep Basin, NEBC Montney Gas/Condensate and Peace River Triassic Oil... see more

TSX:TOU - Post Discussion

Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) > it's kinda strange
View:
Post by jspaceman on Oct 11, 2020 1:18pm

it's kinda strange

the CEO of Peyto is now "crowing" about his "options" for transport in the future.

when in reality, he totally "missed the boat" on marketing diversification. He has yet to complete his FIRST Montney Well, and his plan to sell processing services to producers has totoally FIZZLED, with ZERO revenue booked.

You see the CEO of Peyto never had the foresight to LOCK IN low cost long term transport contracts to alternative regions for his gas like TOU did. And then once AECO prices collapsed, he spent the next 2 years desperately trying to find transport out of the basin. While tourmaline was PROactive in securing market diversification, the CEO of Peyto was REactive, and now crows about his "options". If you have no long term contracts to get your gas out of the basin, you might as well SPIN that failure as positively as possible.

And now that AECO prices have rebounded he's taking the opportunity to highlight an entirely MEANINGLESS datapoint about transport costs. Context matters. But he is the master of "misdirection". But some people know better. 

While the CEO of Peyto often Devolves the conversation into MINE IS BIGGER THAN YOURs tropes, he never seems to compare what really matters: How am I doing for my SHAREHOLDERS, who have been DECIMATED under his REactionary, bland, and plodding leadership. They deserve ANSWERS. they won't get them in the monthly "Please buy my shares" missive.


If he ever did attempt to EXPLAIN the terrible performance of his company, and the share price, it might take an Entrire monthly letter. Just covering his THREE dividend cuts would take up most of his time.

Peyto is producing about 80k boe/d. This is what they were producing in 2014, 6 years ago. while they don't publish a FIVE YEAR plan, or even a ONE year plan, if you follow the "squiggly lines" in their presentation, you can see that Peyto has no plans to cross the 100k boe/d barrier until LATE 2022, which is SEVEN years after they first did this in 2015. 

While Peyto lazily does the same thing over and over, TOU is Developing it's business, making acquisitions, experimenting with new ideas, creating value, and creating NEW COMPANIES. Peyto has CHOPPED it's dividend three times in the last 5 years. it's debt is PAINFULLY stuck above $1b with little prospect for it go materially lower.

I wonder if some of those who FELT BETRAYED by the CEO of Peyto, may move their money over to what is bound to be, given its ties to TOU, a Totaly RELIABLE and consisent payer of dividends that won't chop your PAY

ONE 
TWO
or 
THREE

times.

I am sure TOPAZ will be a very interesting alternative for dividend hunters.

Comment by ngtraderng on Oct 12, 2020 12:50pm
Welcome back to the board, Dutchtender. I don't think anyone will argue against you that Tourmaline is a better company than Peyto in nearly every metric. The one thing that makes Peyto attractive to me is the leverage. In a "high tide lifts all boats" scenario where NG trades where it traded a few years ago, Peyto's share price appreciation will be multiples of Tourmaline's.
Comment by jspaceman on Oct 12, 2020 2:45pm
plenty of people would argue.  so you want a LEVERAGED bet on aeco prices I see... yep the management at TOU would never risk their shareholder's investment in that way. I think you found the right "pony" to ride. but I doubt your prediciton that pey significantly outperfrorms tou from here will pan out. yes in a bullish scenario you want max leverage. but I don't see ...more  
Comment by jspaceman on Oct 12, 2020 2:51pm
right now TOU is "ridin the brakes"....if we ever get the wildly bullish setup that many of the die hard gas bulls expect (i aint holdin my breath), you will see tou Step on the GAS peddle. they have enormous leverage to higher nat gas prices, and the financial resources to ramp production Heavily.  right now they are ridin the brakes. anybody who thinks this company lacks ...more  
Comment by pablo87 on Oct 12, 2020 3:35pm
They pulled the 5 year plan, something is brewing...
Comment by ngtraderng on Oct 12, 2020 4:23pm
Hopefully it's more acquisitions. If TOU wants to be a senior in the same league as SU or CNQ it needs to significantly grow production. Oil boomed in the 2000s. NG will boom in the 2020s.
Comment by pablo87 on Oct 13, 2020 9:20pm
How natural gas fared these past 6 months is in stark contrast to how oil did. May be a glimpse into the future?
Comment by Madness on Oct 27, 2020 1:11pm
"NG will boom in the 2020" Can anyone explain? Thanks.
Comment by Madness on Oct 27, 2020 1:13pm
Or elaborate on this?
Comment by jspaceman on Oct 12, 2020 8:12pm
they pulled it because of topaz...once the final prospectus is set they will publish another one. it would not surprise me to see them make an acquisition concurrently with the public offering of topaz.
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