Velan Inc T.VLN

Stephen Takacsy - BNN - HOLD

[Possibleidiot01]

HOLD

Velan Inc(VLN-T)

28/03/2024

 

Chart looks the way it does because acquisition of its very lucrative nuclear valve business by an American buyer was blocked by the French government. Illiquid stock. The family still wants to sell. Deep value, good return if patient.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS

 

$5.570

Unknown

[mjh9413]

Doesanyone thnk all asbectos provisions have been made, Thanks

[screamer99]

The long term portion of the liability ($70m+) is ticking down, but there's no visibility into the current portion. What's lacking in the quarterly statements are the full notes you see on the annual statements which show how much they've increased the provision based on new claims, how much they've paid in cash for amount they accrued in the past and how much of the provision

[mjh9413]

From PWC: Provisions are recognized when the Company has a present legal or constructive obligation as a result of a past event, it is probable that an outflow of resources will be required to settle the obligation, and the amount can be reliably estimated. Management used an actuary (management’s expert) to reliably measure the asbestos provision which is based on the closed with

[screamer99]

Two things we don't know: 1. Management's assumptions of future claims 2. Current open claims and their evolution to this point. For #2, there was disclosure on this a while ago and because open claims at each successive quarter end were increasing, I bailed. Haven't put money in this since. Until management can give information on #2, they'll use #1 to massage earnings to what

[mjh9413]

Your #1 is exactly w(hat the Provison total for asbestos claims in the FY Reports from 2022 ON, IS MEANT TO BE TELLING US.  There are two provisos. (a) we do NOT and never will know the actual assumptions except they employ actuarial professionals to assess the numbers, and  (b) the Auditors did NOT express any opinion, negative of positive on the numbers. We can judge their

[screamer99]

The number of new and settled claims (along with their costs) is what you need each quarter to make an assessment yourself. Also the number of oustanding claims at the end of each quarter. All these are known, used to be disclosed, but are not anymore. Some light reading: 1. A post from 3 years ago before they recorded a provision for future claims - https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard

[mjh9413]

Here's my take on your classifications: "New" these are either settled or provisioned in quarter, so the $ value is in the Provisions table, AND if the term acdrued in that table  refers entirely to new but not settled, the picture is clearer "Settled:" this number is also in the Notes (and should equate to number in Admin Expenses "Outstanding": this