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Which Colt Is New York Tough?

CHDN | June 11, 2016

One year ago, the horse racing world was abuzz with the prospect of the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, and American Pharoah delivered triumphantly in the Belmont Stakes.

No Triple Crown This Year, But It'll Be Quite A Race

This year's hope to produce back-to-back winners of the Triple Crown for only the second time in history resided with Nyquist. The colt, who had a similar pedigree to American Pharoah, was victorious in the Kentucky Derby, but had difficulty navigating a sloppy track in the Preakness; he finished third. The winner of the Preakness, Exaggerator, shined in the slop, as he did in his victory at the Santa Anita Derby.

Unfortunately, these two stars will not square off in the Belmont Stakes. Nyquist, who came down with a fever after the Preakness Stakes, has returned to California, thus making Exaggerator a prohibitive morning-line favorite at 9–5.

With only a chance of thunderstorms for the race, Exaggerator is unlikely to have his preferred racing surface. However, it is hard to avoid identifying him as the chalk. Try coupling him in a few Exactas.

Historical Betting Preferences

In previous years, bettors who preferred to lay off the favorite, turned to the winner of the Peter Pan Stakes as an alternate choice. This contest, which is also run at Belmont Park a month or so prior to the Belmont, often produces a fresh contender, along with a jockey familiar who is with the track. However, this year's winner, Unified, will not be in the race.

With Nyquist out of the mix, Cherry Wine, who finished a strong second in the Preakness, may have enough real estate to run down Exaggerator in the stretch. After all, the Belmont is 1 ½ miles; the Preakness, which is the shortest of the three Triple Crown races, is 1 3/16.

Cherry Wine may be coming into his best form, if you judge by his three most recent efforts.

Another non-favorite is Destin. The horse, which placed sixth in the Kentucky Derby, is under the tutelage of two-time Belmont winner, Todd Pletcher; he should be considered for some combinations as well.

Looking for double-digit odds, or a longshot to pair with Exaggerator? Arkansas Derby winner Creator is worth a look. The colt's unimpressive 13th place finish in the Kentucky Derby may be attributed to some interference with Oscar Nominated as they turned for home.

Two other factors may work in Creator's favor. One: he did not race in the Preakness Stakes and should be well-rested. Also, the owners have decided to make a jockey change from Ricardo Santana Jr. to Irad Ortiz Jr., and for good reason. Ortiz Jr. has been red hot on the New York circuit. At this time, he ranks third in wins at the meet and finished second in last year's rider standings.

Despite lacking the suspense and excitement of witnessing a possible Triple Crown winner, the track is expected to have a capacity crowd. So, put away the Mint Julep and Black-Eyed Susan cocktails, because it is time to mix-up a Belmont Jewel and enjoy this year's pre-race rendition of "New York, New York," and root for the upset.