Last week’s economic data releases have been dimmed by China virus crisis intensity on Friday, but there was an increase in volatility following Wednesday’s FOMC and the important quarterly earnings releases on Tuesday and Thursday. This week we will have Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number. But there’ll be more interesting economic news releases. Let’s take a look at the details.
The week behind
The financial markets have been focusing on series of economic data releases last week. Wednesday’s
FOMCMonetary Policy Statement has been the most important one and the markets went risk-off after the release, as stocks sold off and
gold rallied. But then Thursday’s
Advance GDP number release along with much-better-than-expected quarterly earnings announcement from Amazon reversed the sentiment once again. Not for long though. On Friday,
stock markets plunged and gold rallied following increasing
China virus fears.
Let’s take a look at the one-hour chart of gold price. The market has begun rallying exactly at the time of last Wednesday’s FOMC Monetary Policy Statement release. So, the data brought a lot of short-term
volatility, as price accelerated its uptrend following downward correction. Last week, , and it surely was.
The week ahead
What about the coming week? The markets will await Friday’s
Nonfarm Payrolls,
Unemployment Rate releases. On Monday and Wednesday the
PMI numbers will be released. The
ECBPresident Lagarde will speak on Wednesday and Thursday and it will likely move the EUR/USD
currency pair. There will also be some pretty important economic data releases in Australia on Monday and in Canada on Friday. Investors will continue to react to
quarterly earnings releases. Let’s take a look at key highlights:
- Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number along with the Unemployment Rate will be the most important economic data release this week.
- On Monday we will get the ISM Manufacturing PMI and on Wednesday we will get the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
- On Wednesday and Thursday the ECB President Lagarde will speak.
- On Monday there will also be the important RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate release in Australia, and on Friday the Employment Change along with the Unemployment Rate will be released in Canada.
- Last but not the least, we will get more important quarterly earnings releases this week, including Monday’s after-hours report release from GOOG.
Let’s focus on the Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number release.
Where would the price of gold go following that news release? We’ve compiled the data since January of 2017, a 36-month-long period of time that contains of thirty seven NFP releases. The following chart shows that gold price was slightly gaining following the release. However, it was retracing its short-term advance around 10 days after the release. Additionally,
the biggest advance after the NFP day was +5.06% and the biggest decline was -3.82%.
You will find this week’s the key news releases below (EST time zone). For your convenience, we broken them down per market to which they are particularly important, so that you know what to pay extra attention to, if you have or plan to have positions in one of them. Moreover, we put the particularly important news in bold. This kind of news is what is more likely to trigger volatile movements. The news that are not in bold usually don’t result in bigger intraday moves, so unless one is engaging in a particularly active form of
day trading, it might be best to focus on the news that we put in bold. Of course, you are free to use the below indications as you see fit. As far as we are concerned, we are usually not engaging in any day trading during days with “bold” events on a given market. However, in case of more medium-term trades, we usually choose to be aware of the increased intraday volatility, but not change the currently opened position.
Our Market News Report consists of two different time-related perspectives. The investors’ perspective is only suitable for the long-term investments. The single economic data releases rarely cause major outlook changes. Hence, we will only see a handful of bold markings every week. On the other hand, the traders’ perspective is for traders and day-traders, because the assets’ prices are likely to react on a single piece of economic data. So, there will be a lot more bold markings on potentially market-moving news every week.
Investors’ Perspective
Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks
Monday, February 3
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, February 4
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, February 5
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday, February 7
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Crude Oil
Monday, February 3
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 10:30 p.m. Australia - RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate
Tuesday, February 4
- 4:30 p.m. U.S. - API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, February 5
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Trade Balance
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 10:30 a.m. U.S. - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, February 6
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - RBA Monetary Policy Statement
- 10:00 p.m. China - Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance
Friday, February 7
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Stock Markets
Monday, February 3
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m
- After Close U.S. - GOOG Quarterly Earnings
Tuesday, February 4
- After Close U.S. - CMG, DIS, GILD Quarterly Earnings
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, February 5
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday, February 7
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
EUR/USD
Monday, February 3
- 3:55 a.m. Eurozone - German Final Manufacturing PMI
- 4:00 a.m. Eurozone - Final Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 1:15 p.m. Eurozone - German Buba President Weidmann Speech
Wednesday, February 5
- 3:55 a.m. Eurozone - German Final Services PMI
- 4:00 a.m. Eurozone - Final Services PMI
- 5:00 a.m. Eurozone - Retail Sales m/m
- 7:15 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thursday, February 6
- 3:00 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 5:00 a.m. Eurozone - EU Economic Forecasts
Friday, February 7
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
USD/JPY
Monday, February 3
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, February 4
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, February 5
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Thursday, February 6
- 10:00 p.m. China - Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance
Friday, February 7
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
GBP/USD
Monday, February 3
- 4:30 a.m. U.K. - Final Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday, February 5
- 4:30 a.m. U.K. - Composite PMI, Services PMI
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday, February 7
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
USD/CAD
Monday, February 3
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, February 4
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, February 5
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Trade Balance
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 12:30 a.m. Canada - Governor Council Member Wilkins Speech
Thursday, February 6
- 10:00 p.m. China - Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance
Friday, February 7
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
- 8:30 a.m. Canada - Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
AUD/USD
Monday, February 3
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 10:30 p.m. Australia - RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate
Tuesday, February 4
- 8:30 p.m. Australia - RBA Governor Lowe Speech
- 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI
Wednesday, February 5
- 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - Retail Sales m/m, Trade Balance, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
Thursday, February 6
- 5:30 p.m. Australia - RBA Governor Lowe Speech
- 7:30 p.m. Australia - RBA Monetary Policy Statement
- 10:00 p.m. China - Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance
Friday, February 7
- 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m
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Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care
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Disclaimer
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