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Are Institutions Selling Into This Rally?

SIGNS OF WEAKNESS - MARCH 2000 The weekly chart below shows NYSE volume associated with advancing issues less volume associated with declining issues (NYUD). During the topping process in 1999-2000, notice how NYUD made a discernible lower high relative to the S&P 500’s ...
Chris Ciovacco | June 26, 2019 |

Tracking The Stock Market's Progress Versus Historical Cases

STUDY UPDATE A March 1 analysis covered historical cases similar to the 2019 setup shown below, where the S&P 500’s 100-day moving average (blue) dropped below a flattish-to-down 200-day (red). Stocks rallied and the market closed above the 200-day for el...
Chris Ciovacco | April 9, 2019 |

The Long-Term Message From The VIX

STOCKS vs. EXPECTED VOLATILITY The VIX measures the market’s expectation of future volatility. We can think of the S&P 500/VIX ratio as a way to track confidence in stocks and earnings relative to confidence the market will be volatile. The S&P 500/VIX ratio is currently in...
Chris Ciovacco | April 16, 2019 |

Trade, Impeachment, And The Conviction Of Buyers And Sellers

ROLLOVER PROCESS 2007-2008 Since every trade has a buyer and a seller, price action in the financial markets is determined by the conviction of buyers relative to the conviction of sellers. In the first half of 2007 (chart below), the conviction of buyers became stronger t...
Chris Ciovacco | September 30, 2019 |

What Typically Happens When These Charts Flip?

TOPPING PROCESS DOT-COM BEAR MARKET One of the best ways to strip opinions and personal bias out of any market analysis is to compare facts from the past to present-day facts. Near the latter stages of a major stock market topping pattern that formed between 1999 and 2001, ...
Chris Ciovacco | June 19, 2019 |

After An Extremely Rare Move In Bonds, How Have Stocks And Bonds Performed In The Past?

LEARNING FROM HISTORICAL MARKET FACTS When investors are concerned about future economic outcomes, they often migrate toward more defensive-oriented long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (TLT). The recent surge in demand for defensive bonds caused an extremely rare and extended loo...
Chris Ciovacco | June 11, 2019 |

Why This Small-Cap Miner Could Be a 'Once-in-a-Generation Wealth Builder'

I had been familiar with the story and potential of uber micro-cap (a valuation of little more than C$3 million or so for a LONG time!) Omineca Mining and Metals Ltd.'s (OMM:TSX.V; OMMSF:OTCMKTS) for years. But as gold was beginning to percolate and other necessa...
Streetwise Reports | June 24, 2020 |

Tax loss selling…is it a good time for investors?

Every year on Black Friday, shoppers anticipate great deals and are lined out the door to get a discount on a TV or on a much needed appliance. Buyers will go to many lengths, including camping outside the store to be the first in or even trampling on other shoppers to get t...
Dr. Kal Kotecha | December 11, 2019 |

Gratomic: Eco-conscious and On The Move

Graphite has been around for what it seems to be forever. I’m sure we all remember using a form of this naturally-occurring crystalline carbon as kids in our yellow No. 2 pencils. The popularity of this highly versatile mineral with other uses incl...
Dr. Kal Kotecha | April 22, 2021 |

Monthly Breadth: Dark Clouds Or A Ray Of Hope?

MONTHLY BREADTH - MARCH 2000 Last week’s post looked at a weekly volume-based breadth indicator. With June in the history books, it is a good time to review the message from monthly breadth charts. As shown below, the monthly NYSE Advance-Decline Line peaked in 1998 and thu...
Chris Ciovacco | July 3, 2019 |
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