GREY:AFRIF - Post by User
Post by
LTGoldBullon May 22, 2013 8:12am
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Post# 21425349
The Base is Set
The Base is Set At least this "Formal Offer" sets a base and floor price on AFF assets, though still not reflective in trading prices as it is still not official until regulatory filings are complete and notices for agm's etc.
So happy in some ways the floor is set at 80p cash plus whatever premium is given on the time value of the 40p convertible plus 8% over the 2 years. SP imo should be at least a 90p reflection of this deal.
I see Alison Turner of Panmure Gordan is not receptive to the new 80/40 offer, as it presents less AFF shareholder options plus the offer itself way undervalues assets of Afferro which they currently rate at 279p nearly 3x this bid value less the Afferro Treasury cash. Understandable but factor in the current state of the juniors and...
" Alison Turner, analyst at Panmure Gordon.
She stressed that the offer "considerably undervalues the company", explaining: "The 120p offer notionally implies a premium of 69% to [Tuesday's] closing price and values Afferro at $190 million (£125.9 million), or an enterprise value of c. $105 million after taking into account Afferro's current cash.
"However that compares to our valuation of the Afferro asset base of 279p per share ($440 million) and as such we believe that the IMIC offer considerably undervalues the company."
My hope is still in the "White Knight" scenario, after others see the low valuation proposed here. Posco, first comes to mind as we have yet to here details of the proposed MOU due by end 2Q. Assuming they had "Data Room" access for the MOU in order to make a decision towards a Project Level Investment, I believe they may counter at a minimum 120p cash for starters.
Only 2nd or 3rd inning after the start of the game, this past years end! Cheers, Mark