RE:Mackenzie Valley Pipeline OilEng -
I became a shareholder of MGM for the exposure to the Canol shale oil play, and honestly never bothered to learn much about the history of the natural gas in the north. It is certainly a very telling tale in which it seems the regulatory system took so long to work through that the opportunity had come and gone. Hopefully they've learned their lesson and the devolution provides a better opportunity to move smoothly for oil producers today.
With regards to the natural gas, I can't answer any questions or provide any greatly detailed information. The bit of knowledge I have is simply from the few articles that are out there. I do find it very interesting that the end of 2013 has quietly snuck upon us and this decision, which could be a big deal, is almost here.
The following excerpt from the link you provided was very interesting, as I didn't realize this 2013 deadline had been set THREE years ago....
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It is up to the companies to decide whether the project makes economic sense for them based on their view of natural gas prices and project costs. They told us they need until the end of 2013 to conclude fiscal arrangements, put their project teams together, do the detailed route planning and engineering, obtain all the necessary approvals and permits and take a decision to construct. They requested an expiration date of 2016 for our approvals.
Northerners told us that it is important to know how the project is progressing after our decision so that they can prepare and plan for construction. They want to be ready to take advantage of job and business opportunities. We respect these planning needs. By the end of 2013 we require the companies to file an updated cost estimate and report on their decision to build the pipeline. In keeping with these needs, we do not agree with the companies that they should be given until 2016 to begin construction of the project. Actual construction must begin by the end of 2015 for our approvals to remain valid.
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So this day certainly has been long awaited by many northerners. I am hopeful that these companies release plans to move forward in a positive way and get the project off the ground, and not just another delay/extension to make a real decision. From what I've been able to find it seems like there was a TON of money, time, and other resources put into getting approval for this project. Maybe the commodity pricing isn't what they'd necesarily like to see today, but who knows where things will be in five years. It without a doubt calls for a very long-term, strategic look on their behalf about the future of their company. It'd be hard to imagine these big oil companies walking away completely from all they've put into it, especially considering they've already done the hard part and gotten the approval.
As far as the discussion by others regarding the MGM stock price - I don't think it's taking off any time soon based upon natural gas. I'd love to be proven wrong, and I hope we can look back at this post in a few months and laugh as we sit on a pile of money, but realistically even if these companies decide to move forward there is a long way to go.
The biggest question I have, is how exactly would MGM fit into the picture? Let's theoretically say that Imperial & the others come out in the next two weeks and announce the MGP is moving forward as planned. What effects does this have on MGM?