Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

It's great to add inventory for sure but near term..

[Snowballer]

BTE has moved backwards on capital stack measures... Net Debt to EBITDA moves to 1x from .08x and will add $1.6B of debt now bringing it to a whopping $2.6B of debt. So basically another long 5 years of watching debt levels (risk).

The divi aspect is at least something if you LOOK AT IT AS A NEW OIL COMPANY.  So, let the market punish it... I'll be a buyer in the $4's and/or lower.

Long term I think this is fine.  But the timing sucks, as usual.  High rate environement and pending global recession.

Also brings mgmt. credibility into question imo. As usual the other side of the deal wins while BTE shareholders return to the basement cellar and told to look forward to sunlight down the road sometime into the future. In the meantime, eat your debt sandwiches and pray the oil price remains elevated loll

[AirBr72]

I don't think many BTE holders are happy with this deal, totally blind sided me. I sold half my position at a good time, letting the rest play out. Lack of transparency from BTE, even outright BS from them is frustrating, that being said, this deal looks ok to me. No expert here, but I don't see these debt numbers ? I see 987M + 650M total net USD debt? Very possible I am not looking close

[Snowballer]

BTE needs to fund the 30% of cash side of the deal (while taking on $600M of Ranger debt and addiding BTE's own existing debt). The 70% equity side of the deal dilutes existing shareholders.

[riski]

Yes, it surprised the market, so the reaction is as expected as it no longer fits some people's investment metrics and others simply are panic selling. But yes, it's actually a really good deal for BTE and a surprisingly weak deal for Ranger, so there is risk it doesn't happen, but I sure hope it does. In any other bull market in the past (2010-2013, 2004-2009) this would have been

[Marty57]

If they were going to do anything I would have rather they sold their Eagle Ford property, and use the proceeds to clean up the debt and focus efforts in Canada.  It would mean they get smaller... big deal.  IMO the initial move into Eagle Ford all but sank the company by saddling them with huge debt going into the big oil price downturn that started in 2014.  This new move seems to

[AirBr72]

I totally agree, last night I was wanting to sell everything at any cost out of anger, not smart.  This is exactly how we are all reading this, however adding a quality asset is never a bad play. Timing wise, nothing can get worse that what we have already been through. No matter how you slice it, looks like a bull run over the next few years, barring any possible short term crashes. 

[riski]

Yes, this is always the right call. Even if you want to sell, never sell on the day of the deal. Let the deal sink in and let the market digest it a bit, especially this market which is very jumpy.  I like the deal and believe the market is unduly punishing the stock today, so I am adding. Tis the nature of a stock that is 80% owned by retail.   I really hope it goes through

[Snowballer]

Riski, I remeber buying the falling knife after Raging River thinking I was getting a massive discount.  Oh the pain just thinking about it lol. Sounds like you have HUGE cash into this already, why rush to buy more? May want to let it settle... even if that's another buck or two down. GL man.

[riski]

Yes, thanks for the well wishes. I am adding today because my calculations suggest the combined entity is significantly undervalued at $5.30. I don't want to miss the deal acknowledging that it is hard to hit the bottom perfectly. 

[Snowballer]

Fair comment.  Could be surprise buying action over next few days. Anything possible.