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Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R



TSX:CXR.R - Post by User

Comment by PROtradingon Jun 13, 2017 1:11pm
186 Views
Post# 26357232

RE:RE:RE:RE:IS this still be shorted?

RE:RE:RE:RE:IS this still be shorted?I love lattice!  I wish we could make little baby traders together but it's not meant to be! :-)

Lattice, ok, we all know the commons on CXR is a good short to zero.  But are you shorting anything else?  From the top?

I also know what that paper is, it's related to the old CEO right?

Iattice wrote: Chemdog, I am not telling you to sell.  I read your post as in that you are not selling until they delist so that you have a reminder.  And I get that. I have a share certificate on my wall of the first stock that I lost money on.

I was taken in by a hype campaign, very similar to Valeant's and Concordia's hype story.  I am not sure if you were around to read posts by Stockcoach, Scruggstyle, fdfd12 (although he saw the light by the middle of 2016), calvinsin and more recently lumberfeverlong.  From the laws of hype website, here are some tidbits.  If you read anything on this bullboard, read this:


There are four phases of a hype campaign, each consisting of 12 Laws of Hype. Here are some of the laws of Hype, which I have annotated to fit Concordia. 


Law #1: Fool Yourself to Fool Others: You must first delude yourself before you try and fool other people.  Always tell yourself what a true bagholders tells themself:  You haven't lost until you sell.


Law #3: Stand for an Ideal: Pick a fight seemingly based on moral terms, creating a false "us versus them" dynamic.  Shorts are cockroaches, shorts are greedy, shorts are chicken farmers, shorts are paid bashers .... you get the idea. 


Law #5: Emphasize Meaningless Metrics: Condition investors to focus on metrics that are unrelated to value creation or true fundamentals like cash flow. Concordia used the famous non-GAAP accounting and recognized revenue on shipment so it could stuff the channel, a common trick in pharmaceutical companies because all they have to do is announce a price increase.   But that works only so long until you can't stuff the channel any more.

Law #6: Obscure Data: Maintain flexibility to shuffle things around between segments when things turn ugly, only use selective transparency when the metrics are in your favor. 

Law #7: Give Un-falsifiable Forecasts: Increase the dependence of your investment thesis on "unfalsifiable" beliefs through vague, far-off forecasts. Thompson was great for touting the pipeline of drugs that were just reformulations and repacks.  When asked on conference calls about the pipeline, he would reiterate that it was "confidential proprietary information" 

Law #8: Paint a Rosy Picture: Pretend it is all positive, regardless of the actual outcomes you should eternally forecast rainbows and puppy dogs. 

Law #9: Blitzkrieg News Cycle: In the early stages of your hype campaign, increase the frequency of your press releases. "We are not like Valeant...   We are a company driven by volume, and not price increases"   Yeah, sure, we saw how that quote didn't exactly age well.

Law #10: Spoon Feed the Sell Side: Take advantage of the sell side's feeble minds and spoon feed them whatever talking points you want parroted to the broader investment community.  

Law #11: Simplify Your Narrative: Weave such a simple narrative that every idiot can regurgitate it and force them to unknowingly disregard any empirical evidence; he who tells the simplest story wins the hype.  Donville, McCreath, all advocated a short and distort conspiracy.

Law #12: Downplay Competitors: Downplay all legitimate competition or avoid mentioning it...ever.   

Phase 2: Escalate the Hype. Laws #13-24

Law #13: Blame Unverifiable Exogenous Factors: Utilize exogenous macro forces or unnamed third parties as foolproof and unverifiable scapegoats for your own idiosyncratic operating performance weakness.  It was the british pound foreign exchange.  It is the competition.  Yup, we heard them all.  Well maybe we didn't hear "It was Trump" yet.

Law #14: Minimize Disclosure: Do not disclose terms of partnerships, M&A deals, or even operational results.  Duncan wouldn't even tell the RBC analyst on the Q2-2017 call what percentage they pay to the voluntary scheme ...   1 or 7% even though that could make the beta for 2018.  How did Meihm react?  The next day he put out a new price target for Concordia.  Twenty five cents.  You can't make this up.  25 pennies.

Law #15: Give Non-answer Answers: Do not answer tough questions directly, instead ramble on about unrelated issues, or answer the question that you wished you were asked.  Oberman rambled about the CMA investigations on the con call and said they won't feel the effects of price decreases until 2018.  Oh, well that's comforting! 

Law #16: All that is Old is New Again: Take key phrases from other cult leaders and hype masters verbatim and make them your own. 

Law #17: Maximize Use of Superlatives and Exciting Exaggerations: Fill your speech with superlatives, exaggerations, rhetorical devices, and poetical excitement. 

Law #18: Maintain a Sense of Momentum: Keep hyping something new that is always just beyond the point of visibility. 

Law #19: Befriend the Bankers: Maximize the number of investment banks covering your stock. 

Law #20: Conquer the Conference Circuit:  Attend as many Wall Street sponsored conferences as possible, if you are not a good public speaker or are uncomfortable lying in person, send a surrogate. 

Law #21: Compare Apples to Oranges: Make bogus comparisons between your company and your product to extremely successful outliers. 

Law #22: Bedeck the Banal: Embellish descriptions and phrasing of even the most mundane of products, services and metrics you discuss. 


Law #23: Create Pseudo-Events: Plant news stories with a primary purpose of being reported on. 


Law #24: Send False Signals: Make a small token purchase of your company's shares as a psychological gesture that gives the lemmings fodder for more blind purchases.  Oh Wait.  No insiders are purchasing stock they are selling.  I guess they didn't read this law.

Phase 3: Laws #24-36

Law #25: Always Take Credit: Take credit for good things you don't cause. Put out a well-timed press release that can be generally vague about anything that can be perceived as a positive business development right around the time your stock price is surging from a short squeeze.

Law #26: Let Their Imaginations Run Wild: Tease your following with something distant and abstract, yet positive sounding. 






Chemdog wrote: the fact that you are telling me to sell...speaks volumes...
and for that
as they say....

NEVER
Iattice wrote:
Chemdog wrote: wow
crazy 
my first REAL lesson in selling your losers and moving on...
i should have sold at $2 and change now i am -87%...LMAO

it will be there until they delist it...i am not selling..
its my reminder

 


You can sell all but one share.  Then request a paper share certificate from the transfer agent and frame it as your reminder.   

 




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