My take...Dissappointed that more "value" was not received for Dialco assets in exchange for plunking them into a JV that we only own 30% of. Also concerned that we do not have the right "deal-makers" in place, with little tangible results thusfar.
But rather than an "all is lost" stance, I prefer to think there is more to the story that we do not know YET.
Nor am I an advocate of getting rid of the whole kit and kaboodle (including PMX) at fire sale prices.
What we still have and we don't know:
- We still don't know who the main Trial partner is and who ultimate buyer of the DIMI product will be. All the Dialysis players, or upstarts that want to play in HHD, will not opt for Fresenius machine nor the problematic Outset machine.
- It's possible the JV (Spectral and Infomed) is just a plaeholder until the big guys form their JV and decide how to attack the market. i-Dialco still owns a potential $ 2B asset (based on previous transactions for HHD equipment), of which Spectral now owns only 30% (30% of $ 2B = $ 600M = $ 2/sh). Clearly Spectral did not have the resources nor confidence to bring the thing to commercialization all on it's own.
- This transaction does nothing to undermine the underlying value of the PMX/EAA assets. In fact it may enhance them somewhat as Dialco costs will no longer be a drain on Spectral as a whole...thereby, in theory deferring or perhaps eliminating the need to raise $ during the final stages of the Tigris Trial (especially when coupled with the strong possibility of more Baxter $ forthcoming)
In summary...I am dissapointed that a better deal on Dialco could not be made. I continue to be dissapointed by over promises and under delivery. I too question whether we have the right CEO in place to land the deals that will bring maximum value to all shareholders.
While I have lowered my expectation of the ultimate buy-out price for all assets, the disconnect between underlying value and current SP remains VERY large. For me, I doubt that there are better risk/reward opporunities elsewhere...especially now with likely less than 100 patients to go, in a Trial that is "exceeding expectations"...in the face of rising need, and with no other solutions to Sepsis on the horizon
MM