Big Bank Bravely predicting Recession...RBC was generous enough to share their thoughts:
Silver lining contained in next recession is that Federal Govt will have difficulty explaining their way out of the downturn. Voters will be upset with falling Real Estate prices, higher interest rates, Food & Fuel inflation and shortages of other key goods and commodities.
If recession is moderate, then energy prices may remain stubbornly high by historical standards.
Alberta set to outperform through the downturn.
GH still viewed as safe-haven from volatility.
https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/canadas-economy-is-headed-for-a-recession/ - Inflation, labour shortages and rising interest rates will drag on Canadian growth, pushing the economy into a moderate contraction in 2023.
- The jobless rate will rise next year but to less severe levels than in previous downturns.
- Though higher rates will restrict growth, they’re necessary to tame inflation and cool an overheating economy.
- Household spending that accelerated out of pandemic lockdowns will slow as higher prices, interest rates and unemployment hit households.
- The bottom line: This recession will be moderate and short-lived by historical standards—and can be reversed once inflation settles enough for central banks to lower rates.