Quarterhill Inc T.QTRH

RE:Reminder... what the Apple win is worth

[v_guerriero]

Hi Board,

Thought I would remind you of my June 16 post from last year where I articulated how much the Apple win at 0.45/unit is worth.  Note that my analysis on non iPhones excludes Samsung, which is licensed.  

At 0.45 cents a unit the total value of the LTE patent licensing opportunity is worth 1.1-1.2B CAD (or $10/share).  At, 0.85 cents, if the original jury verdict is reinstated, it is worth $2.0 Billion (or $18/share)

This does not include any ability to license semiconductors, personal digital assistants and for WiLan to continue to acquire new patents under its partner program.  

Apple:
1. 125M trial win - 85 Million award plus interest and legal fees 
2.  75M for sales since coverage period - 150M phones sold since the period covered in the trial judgment
3.  40-50m future sales - for phones sold for next 4 years depending on sales levels until patents expire
Total Apple judgment worth $360-$400m USD or ~$450-520M CAD

Other LTE phone makers as WiLan LTE Portfolio virtually unlicensed.
1. Previous sales: $260 million of past sales from 520 million non iPhone smartphones
2. future sales: $60-80 million per year of non iPhone sales
Total non iPhone value applying $0.50/unit rate is $500-580M USD or $650-750M CAD

TOTAL VALUE of $0.50 / unit is around $1.1-1.2B CAD.

Now just CAFC to get through, but the payoff is massive.  If you look at stats at CAFC from judge sabaw, he is rarely overturned on IP cases.

[cabbieJBJ]

v_g, those are not unreasonable numbers on the Apple side except for future sales.  The 145 patent expired on 5/21/19.  The 757 patent is valid through 12/21.  I'm not sure where you get the assessment that the portfolio is largely unlicensed outside Samsung.  Can you provide perspective. Thanks.

[v_guerriero]

It is industry practice for patent license agreement to last for 5 years.  Most of the licensees were licensed to 2g/3G and wifi technologies.   You can even see in the Apple appeal response that the only few 4g licenses were to small players to establish the 0.50/unit licensing rate.  As well as Samsung.  These were the only licenses that covered the patents specifically and

[v_guerriero]

One thing I forgot to mention is that in investing it is important to have buffer if one is wrong.   when I can outline a case to add $20/ share to the company and the current value attributed to it is $0, even if I am wrong by half, we have a $13 stock price.   The fact that investors value this at 0 is beyond me.  That is why I think this can go parabolic as investors realize

[wilander]

while i 100% agree...we have been saying that for five years. hence the problem with so many different valuations and outcomes but yes, I am waiting to see this Apple case resolved before deciding what I think of the company beyond it.  the chance for a huge payday is real. question is when.  months or years.

[cabbieJBJ]

Thx for the addition licensing perspective found in Apple's appeal brief v_g.   I had thought that Wilan had advised, in answer to an email I sent, that the 4G LTE portfolio was well licensed; however, I could not find any reference in my files.  I'll ask again. I had overlooked the 794 patent.  Excellent point.  Thx. I'll go with your numbers; I like them a

[blackspade799]

The questrion thats been asked and stated many times; is, is there true value in the 20K patents they have? If so, then why doesnt management own millions in peronal shares? What is it that they know about that they are indirectley telling us? We know they are very well paid and would not have a problem buying up millions in shares if they saw true value. The other major point we need to look at

[Newinvestor123]

With insiders not loading up on shares speaks volumes. The shares are fairly valued at current prices. The market is usually smarter than all of the rest of us and it is also sending a strong message. Time to rewind and be realistic with expectations.

[cabbieJBJ]

Newinvestor since 25-Oct-2020 looks like part of the chARMY.  Not enough insider shares...blah, blah, blah!

[v_guerriero]

If Fattouche is still in (and hasn't sold any of his 2M shares), I am still in.

[astutein]

v-guerriero You are still in.Td Ink reporter new as of FEB 15. Fattouche Michael  has not.   made any transactionsin lastyear.   1,910,264 shares owned.  Options and warrants  243,771. No sales reported by officers or directors in lastyear. Jan12021  there was rights exercise by Skippen, James,  Vladesca Michael and Watchmaker at 2.56. John Rim

[v_guerriero]

Yes among the CEO, CFO, Skippen and Fattouche they have 5 Million shares and options.   Or about 5% of the company.   $10 / share is worth $50 million to these guys.  Or $20 is $100 Million.  This isn't chump change and goes along way in Ottawa and Calgary.  That's like being a billionaire in NYC.   They ain't selling at $3.  I can assure you of

[blackspade799]

It would be nice to see a major cash injection into IRD, im sure it would catapult us to $10-$20a share. Building out our Green Technology like Smart Trafic Lights is a multi billion dollar market world wide. The Paris Climate change will be dumping Billions in order to curb pollution and IRD is right at the front door to collect, we just need to add a few new companies and Mr. Rish Malhotra can

[wanttoknowwhy]

"dump WiLAN and Quarterhill, and go all in with IRD. " -A sucidal move to say.. -You said exactly what Apple wants to say now.  good luck   Reply

[blackspade799]

IRD is growing 15-20% YoY and with lots more room to run plus green new jobs. A major add on to IRD would expand our Green Tech reach even greater 2x - 3x growth in a yr is very attainable. Smart Traffic Lights is a Billion dollar market.  Biden will not break up FAANG or do anything to weaken these companies as they are going up against a well run China. IRD is the future and one they need

[100mill]

Charm (aka Blackspade), your posts regarding the injustice of the U.S. patent system are getting repetitive again. You've made your point.

[blackspade799]

I was not taking to you, I was replying to wanttoknowwhy. Get over yourself and the 12 yr old attacks. Lots of childeren on this board not able to have a mature conversation. Grow up.  I know you are a bag holder, live and learn. Its to bad you do not know how invest in stocks.  So Salty lol

[cabbieJBJ]

With you haveing identified so many overhangs blackspade, QTRH would be lucky to get $1.75 per share.  In your doomsday scenario, Wilan would get....you called it: ZERO! Good luck trying to shake shares loose.

[blackspade799]

Nice try there cabbie, we all know QTRH is worth A LOT more then $1.75 per share as you stated, a number you pulled out of thin air. Facts are QTRH management do own a low amount of personal shares. That is FACT. 2nd point, FAANG & the new USPTO has a massive say where we go with patent laws. I stand by my value that WiLAN should be sold, a fair value would be for $350-$400Mil US. As we

[cabbieJBJ]

With all the negs you cite, nobody in their right mind would pay that amount.  The biggest catalyst, an Apple settlement, is now possibly 2023, 2024, maybe never per your post. I agree with you that a C$500M+ offer for Wilan would be atttractive as make a loy of holder think hard.  I would probably tender.  I also agree that the money should go to bulk up IRD, which is the

[blackspade799]

Im sorry you feel they are negative, only posting the facts. And you are way off side in thinking no one would buy our patents. The laws work differently in patent courts in the EU and Asia.  You see a company like Qualcomm was able to get paid because they has patents filed in those countries and were able to get products banned implemented by the courts in China and Germany which forced

[cabbieJBJ]

No facts blackspade.   In post 32568497, you stated, "Our 4G LTE patents case could see our case dragged out even deeper into 2022-2023.. with the new Bidden aministration." How is that FACT.  It is OPINION. When you post, "Lots of variables that could affect the sp one way or another, still very volatile and a roll of the dice." serious investors would run

[blackspade799]

Its based on Apple vs VirnetX time line we are more then half way through but as stated by our CEO the trial should be set in the fall 2021.That could still see Apple appeal and they might even be able to streach it out to the SCOTUS. We are on uncharted waters especially with the unknown direction Biden will take, if its anything like Obama we are in some very rough waters that could streach

[happyretirement]

2nd point, FAANG & the new USPTO has a massive say where we go with patent laws. Only question is whether Big Pharma and the Covid issue is a greater concern than the FAANG involvement with patent laws.

[blackspade799]

This is a very good point and one that Sen. Tillis and Sen. Coons wrestled over with, at the Subcommittee on Intellectual Property the last few years and were stuck at a stalemate. As Sen. Tillis was carving our a special deal for Phama as Big Tech was cutting out small patent holders. The voice for small patent holders in the U.S. has run dry as we see  Biden/Karmala in office who were

[astutein]

Cabbie - No use in debating Balckspade and his views re paten holders in US.  Resibles , youknow who? To sell Patents for $ 350 million is ridiculous . To sell Wi=lan for 350 million makes no sense to me based upon the following facts: 1.  For the 9 months Sept 30 we showed licensing revenue of $67,192. 2.  There would be no INTEL IN FUTURE IF WE SOLD PATENTS. 3. 

[blackspade799]

How much are those patents worth if a new PTAB is brought in and disqualifies WINs patents? Michelle Lee did it under Obama, Andrei Iancu was able to fix some of thr PTAB under Trump but the greatest question is; What will the new direct do? Most are saying he/she will come from Big Pharma and will lead the new USPTO. Which may or may not be in favor of small patent holders. Big Tech and Big