RE:RE:$4,500 nukester: Well thought out post.
Questions:
1) Where are you getting your info about EV's not performing in winter. Tesla fixed that problem a long time ago with its oxtovalve.
2) You mentioned oil reserves. I read here many times that oil prices were bound to go back up when the US replenished its SPR. The US hasn't bothered to replenish its SPR. Why do you think that is the case? I don't think that the US won't need oil in the future, but the US is pretty much oil neutral now and they know they can tap into Alberta's enormous supply if needed.
3) As the 3rd world drags itself out of poverty, it will be achieved on the back of cheap energy. It currently costs less to build a brand new energy infrastructure from solar and batteries than to maintain a single year of hydrocarbon supply. Solar and batteries are going to keep getting cheaper and cheaper as volumes increase.
4) The doption of new technology is always very rapid as in a decade or two. That may seem like a long time, but it really isn't. One of the things that the ICE industry supporterss seem to fail to realize is that as EV adoption goes up exponentially, the decrease in ICE buyers goes down exponentially. As the volume of ICE sales drop, the cost per vehicle skyrockets which means the ICE auto makers either have to massively increase prices OR continually see their margins erode. To that end,
5) You correctly mentioned that not everyone is going to want a cheap Chinese EV. I agree. But what about a cheap Tesla. When Tesla brings out its $24,000 Model 2 next year, people in Colorado are going to be paying $11,500 for the car after the federal and state credits. That car is going to be virtually maintenance free and will be getting cheaper and cheaper to insure as Tesla's are the safest cars in the world plus Tesla will be insuring the cars themselves and cutting out several layers of costs.
I don't get the rational behind why so many people are against EV's. The 5 Tesla models sold in the USA contain by far the highest percentage of American parts. Tesla is expanding its work force as fast as it can while ICE auto makers are cutting jobs.
What is the most confusing part for me is that nobody buys Legacy ICE cars in America anymore. People buy Toyota's and Honda's and Hyundai's and Kia's. In the luxury end of the market, people buy Mercedes and BMWs and Porsches as nobody buys Cadillacs and Lincolns anymore.
So what we are really talking about is work vehicles including light weight trucks and vans. It will take awhile, but the Cybertruck is going to take a big bit out of the sales of the F150 and the GM Silverado and the Dodge Ram etc. As soon as the volume of sales of ICE work vehicles drop, profit margins are going to implode as the fixed cost of ICE work vehicles will remain the same. These days, the light work vehicles account for virtually all of the profits made by American legacy automarkers as sales in China have fallen off a cliff.
The only thing that has saved legacy auto in the last couple of years has been the insane profit margins that legacy has made on American work vehicle sales due to the temporary supply chain issues. That "game" is disappearing.
The recent earth shaking WIN by the UAW will only serve to expedite the end of the legacy American auto makers. Jim Farley (CEO of Ford) pretty much said the exact same thing last week.
The future of ICE auto makers is fukked. Plain and simple. Institutional investors have abandoned the Alberta tarsands. Even the oil industry giants have walked away. Why is it that SU shareholders here don't see it? Sure the company is making good cash flow right now. But what does that look like in 5 years? In 10 years?