Tourmaline Oil Corp (Alberta) T.TOU

RE:Go TOU Go - ARC is nipping at your heels

[uncutgems]

your numbers are theoretical gobbldygook.

what matters is free cash flow.
how expensive are your wells to complete?
balance sheet.
debt.
management.

you did not mention that Arx has well over $2.5b of DEBT
and tourmaline has ZERO of debt.

you did not mention that ARX DOUBLED their share count to get all that condensate. You did not mention that KAKWA wells are among the most expensive gas wells to DCET in North America. you did not mention that arx CHOPPED their dividend twice while tourmaline RAISED theirs MULTIPLE times.
you did not mention that while ARX was firing their CEO and CFO, TOU was creating TOPAZ. 

finally you did not mention that ARX has lost money for shareholders over the last 5 and 10 years. TOU has outperfromed in every time category that matters.

unfortunately you bet on the WRONG pony.

ARX used to be a good company.

now it's just run by caretakers with ZERO skin in the game.

tou is run by a genius who has created BILLIONS for anyone who made a BET on him.

Yoru numbers are just a bunch of random numbers that have no meaing outside your own head.

the real numbers that matter will come out soon.

and then we can have a REAL discussion.

MyHoneyPot wrote:

TOU looks great with a price target of about 60 dollars, this is great and looks like a 36% upside from here. If TOU goes to 60 Arc should end up in the 26-30 dollar range or 120% upside from here. If TOU stays at 44 are should trade up to 22, 83 percent upside. TOU has done great in the past but ARC has 200,000 1/2 cycle opportunity where boe that can be cheaply brought in that is high 57% liquids 60% condensate, and the race is on who will be the premier money maker, liquids included. TOU just does not have a play at that scale to compete.  

Q2 Actual TOU Numbers

Last quater in total TOU produced 35,524 boe of oil and condensate with a total production of about 410,339 boe. 

So for every 1000 boe of Prodution TOU would produce, 86 boe of oil/condensate

Combine ARC Forcast

Now if we look at ARC resouces they will produce 87,000 boe a day with a total production of about 350,0000 boe.

So for every 1000 boe of Production ARX will produce  249 boe of oil/condensate 

Prices for Analysis using current Prices

Gas AECO spot on Sept 28 is 3.40 condensate is 76.85 U.S. or about 97.50 canadian

Prices Spet 28

BOE Comparsion (ARC produces 3X oil and Condensate as TOU on a boe basis)

So for every boe of production ARC would produce $24.27 worth of oil/condy and TOU would produce $8.35 of oil and condensate. 

So every boe produce by ARC is worth $15.92 more than a boe in terms of oil and condensate then a boe produced by TOU this uses actual Q2 numbers. 

For Example
If you average price for gas is 3.40 AECO spot then a boe of gas is worth $20.40 + $8.35 condensate value = 28.75/boe. 

If ARX produces 350,000 boe and each barrel has a value of $15.92 more and gas is selling at $20.40 a boe pluse $8.35 for oil/condy. This esentially means that for every boe ARC produces it is worth about 1.55 boe's of TOU production. 

350,000 *1.55 = 543,808 boe of TOU equalivent gas production daily. 

Back of the napkin caculation, 3.40 AECO is a good local number, and condensate is alberta is spot price. Higher cost are associated with liquids production.  

In my humble honeypot opinion, outside of other balance sheet considerations, i believe ARC has a better production profile than TOU.

This analysis does not take into account hedging and Condensate is trading at a very good number but you get the idea here i hope..

IMHO