Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

My two cents

[Diamondboy123]

Clarke I'm a true believer in markets.  I've got small 2000 lot bids running from 1.72 to 1.79.  The bids for 1.79 and 1.78 caught. No one buying.  Never mind buying with conviction. If the story as we both see it had street cred the buyers would be going nuts at this price. They aren't. So something missing. I hope I'm wrong but the failure to buy at these levels seriously worries me. Let's hope it's just funds waiting for the new year.

[jclarke042]

This only changes when Paul changes the narrative. The market listens to these presentations, webinars, whatever and hears "18 months," "ability to extend 12 months" and "enough cash to make it through 4 years of permitting." Who TF would listen to that and buy up a few million shares? Now, if he were to say, "this completes Rio's DD checklist, we'll

[Diamondboy123]

Once again your right Clarke.  Are you listening Dr west-sells?

[GardenManman]

personally I am still not sure that Paul's work focuse on Rio checklist or something else. At least, Paul last interview is better than before, if he can add some shares from market, it will be better to prove that it is real for takeover.

[Heywood_Silvers]

Paul already has changed the narrative.  He essentially TELEGRAPHED a deal will (in his expectations) be completed next year. Most in the market are akin to hyperactive children who have a miniscule attention span - if the buyout isn't happening in the next few weeks they'll try to arbitrage interim profits on some other play before jumping into WRN. Things are falling into place...

[nmpappy78]

THANKS, Heywood!  As a LONG time investor, I think you are "right on" with your perceptions!  Appreciate you sharing your thoughts...

[jclarke042]

You KNOW he means 40% of the headline NPV (1.85b USD), not of spot (2.85b USD). You know, but refuse to acknowledge. I dont like the $6/share either, which is why I'm against granting new shares to anyone else wanting to buy in, or Rio buying more unless it's after their standstill expires, which allows them to buy on the open market. Otherwise I'll ask all here again: show us a

[MetalMinded]

That's why I threw out 80% of discounted headline NPV and my target at that is about $12/share.  

[jclarke042]

I've long thought our ask is between $1-1.5b USD ( $6.27 and 9.40/share at today's fully diluted count). Why else would Rio need time for "additional DD," including spending most of their time analyzing the core deposit (those first 4 years worth of higher grade material)? Strong chance they're weighing whether our asking price and capital expense is worth it.  No

[nmpappy78]

A selling price of $1-1.5 billion would be the steal of the century for the buyer!!  One hundred years of wealthy mining for "peanuts"!!  Even the juniors would find a way to buy WRN at that rate...

[jclarke042]

Ok, let's try this: our market cap is US $215m / C$270m. Our after-tax, headline NPV is US $1.86b / C$2.33b How much do YOU think it should sell for? Full sticker price, not "x per share."

[Sooner]

$1-1.5B - steal of the century???? Ummm no. The Josemarie project would be far better deal. They used $3 copper and 8% discount and was about same NPV as WRN. So they sold for 32% NPV at $3copper or something like 25% NPV at $3.35 copper. Why would $1-1.5B for WRN be deal of century??? That would be over 50%-80% NPV.  maybe you are assuming NPV in FS is going to drastically increase as

[Heywood_Silvers]

The headline NPV is akin to spot price of silver.  I can walk into any coin shop and tell them I will offer them spot price for any of their silver American Eagles and they will all laugh at me. If you haven't noticed, the cabal is starting to lose their grip on price suppression.  Gold will not break $1,750 USD to the downside.  And, even if it did, it won't stay that low

[jclarke042]

Not about mea culpas. Either show me a buyout for MORE than 100% of headline after-tax NPV, or the FS has to show increased value through additional recovery/throughput, OR the final sale price will be 0.X of 2.33b CAD / 1.86b US NPV.

[Heywood_Silvers]

Yes JClark042, you are correct.  The fine print highlights the usage of both CAD and USD.  OK, so adding the extra $1 billion Paul mentions in the recent interview may be CAD.  $3.3 billion @ 0.8 = $2.64 billion USD. One may retort, but how can you be assured prices will be hovering around $1,800 instead of $1,600 during the NPV time period?  And, I would retort, but an

[Sooner]

Respectfully...$13 is $2.5B usd....absolutely no way that's going to happen unless FS is blockbuster change. even Paul stated as much in an interview a few months ago...$3B...no way...$2B...no....$1B ...he implied that seemed like a win win . ...so unless something drastically changes...you should plan on ...yes...you heard it first from Sooner....$6 usd....

[Heywood_Silvers]

Updated FS doesn't need to radically change, the parameters just need to be more objective instead of one-sided in RIO's favour. Without beating a dead horse on the numbers, just realize that 10 years ago WRN was a less mature company with a smaller sized project and we were sitting at $4 USD.  10 years worth of inflation (especially in the recent environment we've been in

[GardenManman]

Heywood, repect your optimistic and confidence on WRN, expect your projection to be true. But, as we discussed, there are 90m shares when share price is $4/share 10years ago. Now, we have almost 160m outstanding shares. And, for takeover, mining industry must have it's traditional fair way to evaluate the value of takeover. If junior mine was taken by 30%-50% NPV, Rio shareholders can't

[Heywood_Silvers]

I understand that the share count has increased about 80% in the last decade, however, the delineated gold resource has increased 250% in that same time frame.  I contend that the shares have increased their intrinsic value vis-a-vis where they were a decade ago.  Throw in the inflation in the interim and voila, you get back to my projections. I fully agree that one shouldn't expect

[GardenManman]

Heywood, actually your prediction has no harm to me, we are on same boat. Why was there a $4/share in history? There was a rumor that some company will takeover WRN above $4, but management rejected the proposal because it is lower than their expectations, then chance walked away, then wait decade. This is just a rumor, but that means much, reasonable price will be good to each side. In a word

[Sooner]

Garden - not only would Rio shareholders not feel to good about greater than 50% advertised NPV $1.88B...they would also barf all over paying mor than 40% premium of WRN market cap at time of announcement....

[GardenManman]

once checklist meet, market will start to fill the gap and close to takeover price, now market has no clue, need Paul to give a booter shot:-)

[jclarke042]

Until there is obvious competitive tension for Casino and .... *checks 6 month chart*...there isn't, Rio can have it anyway it wants. They have all the time on earth right now. We have time, dilution, commodities, and permitting risk right now, today. I said yesterday, I think we're asking for a high percentage of the headline, aftertax NPV, and for Rio to feel comfortable with that

[Heywood_Silvers]

My take on the comment WRN "would throw in the rest of the deposit" reminds me of the "BOGO" adds I would see at Publix or other such grocery stores:  you buy one you get one free.  Which, is another way of saying half off.  I interpret this as if RIO will pay full for the front half they get the back half for free. I can mull it over multiple different ways

[Sooner]

Rio could have bought $1 for about a quarter with the Josemarie project. Based upon current spot...it would have been less than a quarter. Lots of examples where projects sell around 35 cents per NPV (or buying $1 for 35 cents as you imply). The big difference that you are not understanding is it's not literally $1 cash that they are buying...there is plenty of risk associated with that $1

[Heywood_Silvers]

You are correct Sooner, there is risk on both sides of the table:  A party could overpay for an asset and the other party could undersell said asset.  This all boils down to how well the parties negotiate. What we know, per Paul, is that RIO isn't worried about the PEA figures that we have been debating for the last 7 months since the headline NPV was published.  There likely

[fishfanactic]

How does Casino deposit compare to Great Bear deposit that Kinross is going to buy for 4.3 Bil? Great Bear is suppose to be a 20 mil oz deposit and Casino is 14.5 mil oz deposit with several billion pounds of copper.

[Sooner]

It was $1.4B usd dingass...

[Heywood_Silvers]

Love your question about Great Bear.  They snagged $1.42 billion for a project with ZERO, I repeat, ZERO delineated resources.  High grade, sure, no doubt.  Large project, sure as the current estimates are it would be around 8 million ounces if they were to complete a PEA. Let's just round it up to an elephant sized project and say GB has a 10 million ounce project on their

[Sooner]

Hey - hopefully at some point the market also agrees with us....because even with all the unknowns with GBR they were still trading at a valuation of about 4 Casinos even before the acquisition!

[fishfanactic]

yea that is pretty amazing securing that buyout with not even a 43-101 filed indicating the measured resource. I guess Kinross based it on current drillings and historic history of the area over last 3 years. It's comforting to know Casino has progressed significantly beyond that stage. A question as you seem very knowledgeable concerning Casino. Has Rio and Western completed all the infill

[EvenSteven27]

February 1,2015 Great Bear was trading at .15 March 1,2017 Great Bear was trading  at .20 (still relatively flat) August 1,2017 Great Bear was trading  at .34 June 1,2018 Great Bear was trading at .51 Then KINROSS gets involved September 1,2018 GB is @ 1.84 May 1,2019 GB is @ 3.97 January 1,2020 GB is @ 8.80 June 1,2020 GB is @ 19.27 (peak for sometime

[Heywood_Silvers]

The initial results from the 2021 drilling campaign were released last month.  They confirmed the Casino story being told to RIO.  I would expect the final results by Q1 of next year.  In Q2 an updated feasibility study should be produced.  In the updated FS we should expect either a migration of inferred resource to M&I and or an increase in the amount of inferred resource

[Sooner]

 quick question- some of drill results in the Rio program are the best that have ever been recorded at Casino. So if that's the case, how do those drill results influence our stated grade and improve the financials in PEA or FS? Even if the drill results are only 5% of what's historically been drilled...they should at least have some impact on our grade...correct?   

[Heywood_Silvers]

Hi Sooner, you would think the recent drill results will have a positive impact on the project's profitability.  I'm coming to the following conclusion the more I think about it:  WRN has their own methodology of calculating the project's worth, the firm hired to produce the PEA has their own methodology and RIO has their own methodology. What shouldn't be up for

[EvenSteven27]

If you ask me, Great Bear has just set a new precedent for other juniors. This will likely have a positive impact on WRN as the value of top notch juniors has just gone up due to the precedent which has been set. 6 bagger from current price is very conservative, indeed. But I always like to be conservative so I get a pleasant surprise later, not disappointment.