RE:RE:Financials I completely agree with your FY2023 estimate. From what I remember, Q4 of last year included a portion of a SEPTA contract, alongside multiple significant contracts announced toward the end of Q3 and throughout Q4 (National Express). The National Express contract contributed over 1 million in Q4. So I don't see as of today how that would be replicable.
The lack of contract announcements and my inability to find any unreleased contracts during this year's Q3 and Q4 timeframe of noteworthy value leads me to believe Q4 revenues falling within a range of $6 to $8 million. However, there are several unknown factors that could significantly surpass this estimation:
- Florida's passing of the stop arm camera bill in early June, coupled with Gatekeeper's ~40% market share and hiring Jason Harris to oversee the Student Protector Programs, should potentially result in a rapid influx of contracts. (BusPatrol, for instance, secured numerous contracts during Q4 following the bill's passage)
- National Express might have spent an amount equivalent to or even greater than their spending during the previous Q4
- The increase in the mobile data collector install base between Q3 and October, rising from more than 47k to 50k. A good portion of this increase could have occured in Q4, unless it predominantly correlates with the new SEPTA contract.
- The possibility of signing more hosted service contracts
Having said this, even if Q4 revenue declines to a range of $6 to $8 million, this would still imply 30 to 40% YoY annual revenue growth.
Looking ahead to FY2024, it appears to be shaping up as another year of substantial records. Based on my estimations, the backlog by the end of Q1 could be at least $15 million, with the majority likely to be recognized in Q2. There are several school bus camera RFPs that recently ended within the past month that are yet to be awarded, suggesting a possibility of achieving nearly $20 million in H1 FY2024. Additionally, SEPTA alone next year will have the automated bus lane RFP (hopefully in H1), new buses arriving in the summer, and the ongoing Video Systems Refreshment Program.
Any thoughts?