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Tracking The Stock Market's Progress Versus Historical Cases

STUDY UPDATE A March 1 analysis covered historical cases similar to the 2019 setup shown below, where the S&P 500’s 100-day moving average (blue) dropped below a flattish-to-down 200-day (red). Stocks rallied and the market closed above the 200-day for el...
Chris Ciovacco | April 9, 2019 |

Rare Equity Fund Outflows

STOCK PERFORMANCE FOLLOWING SIMILAR MOVES Retail investors have erred on the side of caution in 2019. From a recent MarketWatch article: Analysts said the “extremely cautious stance” of retail investors this year had been puzzling and acted as a...
Chris Ciovacco | December 3, 2019 |

Are Financials Hinting At 2011/2016-Like Stock Market Rally?

TRYING TO MAKE A RELATIVE TURN The chart below shows the performance of financial stocks (XLF) relative to the S&P 500 (SPY). Since making a low in late 2011 (point A), the XLF:SPY ratio has been trading in the slightly upward-sloping blue trend channel. Anecdotally, it is...
Chris Ciovacco | April 9, 2019 |

Bulls Trying To Make A Stand

DOOR TO A BULLISH BOTTOMING PROCESS REMAINS OPEN During the trading session on Monday, August 19, the “bottoming process” case for the stock market remained intact. The NYSE Common Stock A-D Line held the line last week at a logical level associated w...
Chris Ciovacco | August 21, 2019 |

Cash Balances Could Push Stock Market Much Higher

HIGHEST IN A DECADE According to Lipper and The Wall Street Journal , money market balances were basically identical on October 30, 2019 and March 25, 2009. It is easy to understand how money market balances reached extremely high levels in March 2...
Chris Ciovacco | November 20, 2019 |

Investors Run From Stocks At Record Pace

BIGGEST WITHDRAWALS ON RECORD There is a lot of relevant information in the text below from a Wall Street Journal article dated December 8, 2019 : “Investors have pulled $135.5 billion from U.S. stock-focused mutual funds and exchange-traded funds so far this year, th...
Chris Ciovacco | December 10, 2019 |

Gold, USD and the Euro: the Signs Ahead

Brexit has become very likely due to result of the UK vote. But so what (gold- and currency-wise)? The uncertainty dropped significantly, and markets were able to sign a breath of relief (bearish for gold), but on the other hand Brexit itself increases the geopolitical turmoil...
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA | December 19, 2019 |

Financial Sector Under Pressure and What It Means

The Financial sector is unique in that it is an essential component of global economics as well as local economic functions. Consumers depend on banking services, credit, and all sorts of other financial services in their day-to-day lives. The Financial sector is one of the ...
Chris Vermeulen | June 11, 2020 |

Buzz on the Bullboards: Stocks making headlines

It can be hard to know when to make a move when every day looks crazier than the last. Traders don’t not know what to expect coming in tomorrow’s news cycle … but you can bet the markets are going to be volatile day-to-day. This has bee...
Jonathon Brown | October 12, 2023 |

2019 Market Action Points To Positive Long-Term Outcomes

FOCUS TENDS TO BE SHORT-TERM Investors and traders have a tendency to fall into the recency-bias trap over and over. For example, after the S&P 500 closed at a new weekly high on Friday, July 12, it was easy to believe “the bulls are firmly in control”. Fast forward t...
Chris Ciovacco | July 22, 2019 |
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