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Evidence Of A Broad Swing In Global Stock Momentum

INSTITUTIONS DRIVE MARKETS Institutions typically lead in the stock market and retail investors follow, which is why equity-based mutual funds and ETFs have seen record outflows in 2019, but the stock market has still gone up. Institutions have been supporting the market...

Rare Equity Fund Outflows

STOCK PERFORMANCE FOLLOWING SIMILAR MOVES Retail investors have erred on the side of caution in 2019. From a recent MarketWatch article: Analysts said the “extremely cautious stance” of retail investors this year had been puzzling and acted as a...

Is the BoC's interest rate cut an optimistic growth outlook for Canada?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has announced another 25% interest rate cut this morning. It was widely expected by analysts, that the BoC would do a one-and-done jumbo cut of 50 basis points. One analyst Avery Shenfeld, chief economist with the Canadian Imperial Bank ...

Updating January's Rare S&P 500 Setup

THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTHLY CLOSE As described in detail below, when the S&P 500 closed above the monthly Bollinger Band centerline at the end of January, it aligned the present day with favorable historical probabilities and also provided some distance from setups in the 197...

2019 Market Action Points To Positive Long-Term Outcomes

FOCUS TENDS TO BE SHORT-TERM Investors and traders have a tendency to fall into the recency-bias trap over and over. For example, after the S&P 500 closed at a new weekly high on Friday, July 12, it was easy to believe “the bulls are firmly in control”. Fast forward t...

Finding the Jackpot in the Electronic Gaming Machine Market

I have an interest in gambling and poker as a venue for some modest entertainment. After all, investing in penny stocks would qualify as gambling, but like any gambler, we look for an edge or advantage. With penny stocks, my edge is many years of experience and a long lis...

Technical Analyst:Mega-Profitable Strategy for Next Heavy US Stock Market Down Leg Believed Imminent

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses what he sees ahead for the markets. We are going to look at an array of important factors pointing to another severe drop in the broad U.S. stock market imminently, both factors external to it and indications on the charts fo...

Global Dow Nails Down Bullish Signal

SIGN OF GROWING CONFIDENCE At the end of November, monthly CCI completed a momentum round trip by closing above 100 after closing below -100 in late 2018. CCI helps us track market momentum. The turn that just took place over the last year is typically associated with a si...

These Charts Say 2018 Was A Major Bottom

RECENT SIGNAL SEEN NEAR 2002 AND 2009 LOWS As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) recently completed a bullish turn that has only taken place two previous times since 1996. In late December 2018, BPSPX reached a rare oversold state denoted b...

Tracking The Stock Market's Progress Versus Historical Cases

STUDY UPDATE A March 1 analysis covered historical cases similar to the 2019 setup shown below, where the S&P 500’s 100-day moving average (blue) dropped below a flattish-to-down 200-day (red). Stocks rallied and the market closed above the 200-day for el...
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