Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Some toughts

[lb1temporary]

• Yesterday, BBD859 gave a forecast ; ''This will push up EBITDA up to $450M - $470M range.'' 

I can add that in the FCF side, if we substract 140 M$ for the interests, 80 M$ for the Capex and add at least 200 M$ for the work-in-progress inventories decrease ( at 46 deliveries we will be 10 over the 35 average deliveries per quarter in 2023), we will have FCF in the 400-440 M$ range. That will means close to 1 B$ for the full year. A real huge achievement.  

• On a daily basis, the behavior of the stock generally went in the same direction as the big movements of the market. Since, the Q3 results it is unpredictable; It's as if the share moves according to its own momentum only.

• In the last 10 trading days, we had 3 huge performing days by Bombardier. Monday, nov 28 (+3$), Thursday dec 1  (+3,89$) and last friday (+1,46$  as the market was down 1%). This stock has a momentum rarely seen before.

That being said, it's difficult to distinguish realistic forecasts from irrational exuberance. We are only at 2,11$ pre-split.

[Skyisthelimite]

Yes LB, we are just at 2.11$ pre split and as mentionned by a poster, the fondamentals haven't changed and that is exactly the point, the fondamentals have been good for a few quarters and the investment community is just catching up and finally believing in the turnaround. I am not saying we are going to 150$ next week but an upside to the average analyste prices is possible ulin the next few

[Skyisthelimite]

I would also like to add that a cie with +/- 8 billion US in revenus (over 10B cnd) has a market cap of +/- 5.2B cnd is sort of a non sense,  yes there is the debt, but still, the market cap should and will reflect that eventuallly imo. GLTA 

[Truthifest]

The fundamentals are far better than a year ago, literally in almost every way. 

[lb1temporary]

Since last year while the SP was in the 2$ range, the fondamentals direction haven't changed, you're right; but can we say that they are a bit better;?  In 2022, the Book-to-bill ratio was over 1,5 and the orders conditions moved in the Bombardier favor with better prices and better cash down conditions giving strong FCF to Bombardier, allowing more debt reimbursments and force it to

[BBDB859]

That's what I've been saying on FCF for 2023 on, all along Temp. They'll have close to $1B in 2023 to do as they wish with. Of course they'll throw it all on the Debt. So we'll have close $1.5B (Including the restricted cash) to reduce LTD with, in the next full year. The reasoning for that is I think, that we're going to have a great Q4/22 as well. If the B to B stays in

[Truthifest]

859 and temp, for me, the biggest swing factor now is orders.  What do u guys see happening there? Things might be a bit mixed.  Gollan's company reports that the number of private jet flights has for several months now fallen below (huge) 2021's, but still up a lot vs pre-Covid 2019.  One data point says the recent drop is less for bigger jets, as we'd expect, tho

[lb1temporary]

About the flight hours are your numbers looks like these ones from RadarBox (obtained via CIBC dec 04 weekly report) ? :   Business Jet Traffic Up 4% W/W: As of December 1, the seven-day rolling average of global business jet flights came in at 10,566, up 4.2% W/W from 10,139 a week ago (November 24). Business jet traffic was up 29% compared to the same week in 2019 and down 4% Y/Y

[Truthifest]

temp, I got my private jet flight numbers from Doug Gollan's Private Jet Cards Comparisons site, which I think gets it's numbers from WingX.  They show global, US and Europe activity having decreased for a bit, but still up for the year-to-date and especially compared to 2019.  So, the recent trend has been down.   For "week 48" (ended Dec 4, 2022), total

[stockitnow]

Jet card is for jet sharing like netjet, Flexjet etc.  It doesn't include business who own their own jets, private owners, and many smaller companies that manage jets for others. If you read ainonline, air insight etc.  you would see a lot of private aircraft were down for maintenance and or interior upgrades.  Used jet aircraft price are still high. So yes usage was down, but

[stockitnow]

Keep in mind this recession is being induced.  Let that sink in, unlike previous recession, financial crisis etc. this recession is to tame inflation.  With the current rate hikes unemployment is still historic low. There was a time when low employment rate would drive stocks up now its doing the opposite.  Now low employment rate means rates will go up.  Another point is that

[Truthifest]

stockitnow, I'm a fundamental investor who believes the Bombardier bull case.  What I'm exploring is other investor's order expectations. Hard for someone like to tell what will happen with orders, but I see a not immaterial chance that orders cool in the short run, which, given the comments here recently, could well be a shocker to individual investors.  Maybe b2b comes in

[stockitnow]

As long as book 2 bill is higher then 1.0, then thats all good.  But then again OEM has flexibility to adjust their production rate to keep b2b above 1.  Reducing build rate is increasing fixed cost per unit, but then again Bombardier will be leaving Downsview for Toronto which will greatly reduce their fixed cost atleast for Global line. Bombardier is also building a big aftermarket

[NoNameAtAll]

Regarding your statement "No one knows what will happen when the Central bank achieves the inflation rate they are aiming for." actually, we do know. As soon as inflation is clearly headed to the targeted 2-3% range, then interest rates will be lowered, in tandem with that inflation reduction until interest rates also get to the neutral range.  They will not wait for inflation to

[stockitnow]

Good point, but you are assuming central banks will act in timely manner.  They have always been reactive and have always been late to react.

[BBDB859]

Good analysis Nobody. IMO. The BofC will have Interest rates higher for a lot longer than they think. Because as I said quite a few times here. Inflation isn't as easy to bring down ,as people think. People/Companies that are charging high rates for their goods & services right now, aren't about to give up those profits that easily. The biggest indicator of that is FOOD at the Grocery

[glory7]

BBD859 do you have any life at all besides ranting your philosophy on this board?

[clubhouse19]

Certainly better than yours considering what you bring here !

[NoNameAtAll]

Hi 859, I follow your logic and agree that central banks tend to wait too long to start the change cycle of interest rates. I do point out, however, that prices do not need to be lowered by anyone for inflation to come down.  Inflation is a measure of increases in prices.  So, if the grocery prices stop increasing by 10% and only increase by 2%, then that is the goal.  Same with

[BBDB859]

Hi Noname. We're on the same page. Govt's expectations of what direction the economy's Inflation should be heading to, is one thing, and what really happens is another. The true function of Inflation, is cummulative,where those gains are here to stay, and are attached to other aspects of the economy like wages. Corrections/recessions need to occur for the Economy to grow. This is the

[NoNameAtAll]

859, Yes, I agree.  The conversation could go on all day.  Thanks for your points! Regards

[BBDB859]

Hey Truth. This is JMHO on what I perceive to be a biased, and fair assessment of of the company, from what I've read, and seen in the BJ sector. Make sure you do your own DD. I don't want to be responsible for anyones decisions here. You asked for my opinion and I'll give it to you. I don't know how this group of bumbling idiots of the previous management with Pierre