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Tracking The Stock Market's Progress Versus Historical Cases

STUDY UPDATE A March 1 analysis covered historical cases similar to the 2019 setup shown below, where the S&P 500’s 100-day moving average (blue) dropped below a flattish-to-down 200-day (red). Stocks rallied and the market closed above the 200-day for el...
Chris Ciovacco | April 9, 2019 |

What Typically Happens When These Charts Flip?

TOPPING PROCESS DOT-COM BEAR MARKET One of the best ways to strip opinions and personal bias out of any market analysis is to compare facts from the past to present-day facts. Near the latter stages of a major stock market topping pattern that formed between 1999 and 2001, ...
Chris Ciovacco | June 19, 2019 |

After An Extremely Rare Move In Bonds, How Have Stocks And Bonds Performed In The Past?

LEARNING FROM HISTORICAL MARKET FACTS When investors are concerned about future economic outcomes, they often migrate toward more defensive-oriented long-term U.S. Treasury bonds (TLT). The recent surge in demand for defensive bonds caused an extremely rare and extended loo...
Chris Ciovacco | June 11, 2019 |

Are Institutions Selling Into This Rally?

SIGNS OF WEAKNESS - MARCH 2000 The weekly chart below shows NYSE volume associated with advancing issues less volume associated with declining issues (NYUD). During the topping process in 1999-2000, notice how NYUD made a discernible lower high relative to the S&P 500’s ...
Chris Ciovacco | June 26, 2019 |

Monthly Breadth: Dark Clouds Or A Ray Of Hope?

MONTHLY BREADTH - MARCH 2000 Last week’s post looked at a weekly volume-based breadth indicator. With June in the history books, it is a good time to review the message from monthly breadth charts. As shown below, the monthly NYSE Advance-Decline Line peaked in 1998 and thu...
Chris Ciovacco | July 3, 2019 |

There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills! The ‘Unique Business Model’ in the Historic Cariboo

The world’s most iconic precious metal has soared back into prominence in recent months, surpassing the $2,400 Canadian mark in mid-May. Yes, indeed, gold is back. Green River Gold Corp. (CCR) ( CSE.CCR , Forum ) was founded in the summer of 2017 by a g...
Dave Jackson | May 12, 2020 |

June 30th 2020, Crypto Chartbook: Back to the future

Back to the future When reading fiction of time travel into the past or watching movies about time machines one theme dominates. The people who travel back in time worry immensely about how their behavior alters history. They fear about all the consequences of what they d...
Korbinian Koller | June 30, 2020 |

Similar Drops In ISM Manufacturing Data

RARE AND RAPID DROP IN ISM MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing PMI Index came in well below expectations on October 1, 2019 sparking renewed fear of a recession. Given the ISM Manufacturing Index was strong in August 2018 and plunged rapidly to the October 1, 2019 lev...
Chris Ciovacco | October 3, 2019 |

The Long-Term Message From The VIX

STOCKS vs. EXPECTED VOLATILITY The VIX measures the market’s expectation of future volatility. We can think of the S&P 500/VIX ratio as a way to track confidence in stocks and earnings relative to confidence the market will be volatile. The S&P 500/VIX ratio is currently in...
Chris Ciovacco | April 16, 2019 |

2019 Market Action Points To Positive Long-Term Outcomes

FOCUS TENDS TO BE SHORT-TERM Investors and traders have a tendency to fall into the recency-bias trap over and over. For example, after the S&P 500 closed at a new weekly high on Friday, July 12, it was easy to believe “the bulls are firmly in control”. Fast forward t...
Chris Ciovacco | July 22, 2019 |
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